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'Air and Missile Defense, Precision Strike, and the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and the Gulf' in Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance Proceedings - Paper 3, Sir Richard Williams Foundation Seminar, 23 April 2026 By Robbin Laird Justin Bronk speaking at the 23 April 2026 Sir Richard Williams Foundation Seminar. At the Sir Richard Williams seminar held on 23 April 2026 focused on the fight tonight challenge, Justin Bronk delivered a presentation that cut through a great deal of the conceptual noise currently cluttering Western defense debates. His subject was the evolving balance between integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) and precision strike, examined across three theaters: Ukraine, the recent Gulf conflict (Operation Epic Fury), and the Indo-Pacific. What emerged was not a tidy set of prescriptions but something more valuable, a framework for understanding what is actually working, what is not, and what the cost curves are telling us about the choices Western air forces must now confront. Ukraine: The Evolutionary Contest in the Air Domain Bronk began with Ukraine, and with an observation that cut against the prevailing gloom. Things are, for once, looking somewhat better. Ukrainian mobilization reforms are working: the Ukrainian force has grown slightly each month since January, which had not been the case for an extended period. On the Russian side, the force has held at steady state only by reverting to coercing conscripts into contract service, putting Russian losses back on what Bronk characterized as an unsustainable trajectory. Neither of these facts resolved the war, but they represent a genuine shift in the operational situation. On the IAMD side, the low point for Ukraine came in mid to late January of this year. Bronk was direct about this. He described being in country during a period of persistent freezing fog and limited power, when Patriot interceptor stocks had run out and many counter-UAS systems proved to have inadequate all-weather capability. Interception rates against both UAVs and cruise missiles dropped sharply, and ballistic missile penetration followed. The human and industrial consequences were severe. What turned this around was a new shipment of PAC-3 interceptors, a small number relative to what Gulf states subsequently expended in Operation Epic Fury, and the arrival of better weather. The evolutionary contest between Russian one-way attack UAVs and Ukrainian defensive adaptation is one of the most instructive ongoing dynamics in the conflict. Russia’s Geran-2 and Geran-3 systems have had to be continuously upgraded in response to Ukrainian counter-UAS effectiveness, helicopters, turboprop gunships, and even improvised solutions have forced the Russians to slow production cycles while adding electronic warning sensors, FPV cameras, mesh networking, and evasive flight profiles. The result is a costlier, more complex system being produced in approximately the same quantities as before. As Bronk framed it, this is a back-and-forth evolutionary game, and it remains non-decisive.∗ The F-16’s role in UAV interception deserves particular attention. Bronk was unambiguous: yes, F-16s can intercept significant numbers of one-way attack UAVs. No, that should not be the primary course of action. The platform is too expensive and difficult to sustain for that mission set, and the tactical demands are genuinely specialized, formation awareness, gunnery against small maneuvering targets, dedicated counter-UAV weapons employment. One Ukrainian F-16 loss came from intercepting one target, banking, and flying into a second that had not been acquired. This is not a generic multi-role task. Bronk suggested that European nations without large high-end fast jet fleets consider specializing in this mission with advanced turboprop aircraft, the PC-9 being a practical candidate given its speed margin, wing load capacity, and two-seat configuration. That may be a harder conversation in some capitals than it sounds, but the logic is sound. The Myth of Cheap Mass One of Bronk’s most pointed analytical contributions was his challenge to the term “cheap mass.” The framing has become pervasive in Western defense discourse, the idea that large numbers of individually inexpensive systems can substitute for or complement high-end precision munitions. Bronk’s counter was not ideological. It was arithmetical. Ukrainian strike planning against meaningful targets may require between 250 and 400 one-way attack UAVs to reliably get effects on target. At $30,000 to $50,000 per platform, that is a significant expenditure and the effects delivered by the warheads that get through, typically in the three to six pound range, are minimal against anything except highly flammable targets. Oil refineries burn. Factories do not. Hardened military infrastructure does not. Against the kind of target sets that matter in an Indo-Pacific scenario, hardened, defended, often coastal, cheap mass UAVs are not substitutes for high-end precision munitions. They are, at best, decoys and enablers to improve the probability of kill for those high-end weapons. The corollary is equally important: you still need your ARGOMs, your PRSMs, your standoff precision munitions. What cheap mass buys you is improved PK on the few high-end weapons you can get into the target area. For Australia and US Navy power projection forces operating at the end of extended logistics chains, the constraint on how many high-end weapons can reach a launch-acceptable region simultaneously may be more binding than stockpile size. Ghost Shark and similar XL-UUV programs are interesting precisely because they offer a potential means of inserting large numbers of cheap systems into contested sea space alongside air power, without burning through the high-end inventory. Operation Epic Fury: Operational Accomplishment, Strategic Limits Bronk’s assessment of the Gulf campaign was crisp. The U.S. executed an operationally accomplished strike campaign, thousands of Iranian targets engaged, significant degradation of the Iranian ballistic missile arsenal, and the destruction of what remained of the Iranian integrated air defense architecture. But he was careful to calibrate the IAMD narrative: the Israelis had already systematically dismantled Iran’s air defense network in 2024 and 2025. What U.S. forces encountered in Epic Fury was a shell. Describing the campaign as a landmark counter-IADS achievement would overstate the difficulty of the problem set they faced. More interesting was Bronk’s analysis of where the campaign ran into limits, not militarily, but coercively. The political objective of regime change, announced from the outset, may have been the campaign’s central strategic error. When you make a fight existential for your opponent, when the leaders on the other side understand that losing means being killed or overthrown, you foreclose negotiated off-ramps. You push your opponent into maximum resistance rather than toward a calculation about when to compromise. This is a lesson with deep resonance beyond Iran. On the Iranian ballistic missile arsenal, Bronk identified a structural dilemma that deserves wider attention. Iran’s missiles are a finite, one-time-use asset. Every launch is an irreplaceable expenditure unless the production infrastructure is rebuilt. US and Israeli targeting of missile factories and fueling facilities made that rebuilding prospect uncertain. Iranian decision-makers therefore faced an impossible calculus: fire the arsenal and diminish your remaining deterrence, or conserve it and lose operational effect. This constraint — the non-replenishable strike arsenal — is a fundamental vulnerability that applies to any power relying primarily on ballistic missiles as a coercive instrument. The coercive dimension of this cuts the other way as well. A strike capability, Bronk noted, is generally significantly more coercive before it is used than after. Once the missiles fly and fail to achieve their intended political effect, the threat loses credibility. This principle deserves to be internalized in Indo-Pacific planning, including thinking about how Chinese long-range strike threats against Australian targets would be received after the first few strikes land, relative to how they are perceived as coercive instruments before any conflict starts. Stockpile Management: An Unresolved Problem The section of Bronk’s presentation that generated the most immediate operational relevance for Australian planners was his discussion of munitions expenditure and stockpile management. Gulf nations fired over 2,000 PAC-3 interceptors during the campaign, at approximately $6 million per round on FMS pricing. SM-3 ballistic missile defense interceptors, relevant to defense against the Chinese ballistic capabilities that can range Australia, run approximately $43 million apiece for US forces. Firing two at each incoming threat — standard shoot-shoot-look protocol — is the equivalent of expending an F-35 per target. THAAD rounds are roughly $20 million each on the same math. Bronk’s challenge to the audience was direct: can you afford to build and sustain a stockpile of these systems at the scale required for a credible defensive architecture, while simultaneously building and sustaining the offensive long-range strike capabilities that actually deter conflict? The answer, for most Western air forces except the United States, is no. Which raises the question of whether investment in passive defenses, hardening, dispersal, flush procedures, rapid generation from austere locations, should be carrying more of the defensive burden than expensive interceptors. The Ukrainian example here is instructive. Airbases that have absorbed more than a hundred individual attacks against them are still generating operational sorties. The reason is not elaborate active defense . It is dispersal, concealment, rapid sortie generation, and the simple expedient of towing aircraft into the treeline when warning indicates inbound strikes. These techniques are not glamorous. They also cost a fraction of ballistic missile defense interceptors. The unsolved problem Bronk identified is the relationship between national stockpile management authority and operational-level targeting decisions. Who, in a given country, has visibility on the national interceptor inventory during an active campaign? At what risk tolerance are operational planners authorized to proceed when that inventory is being drawn down? These are questions most Western air forces have not answered with sufficient precision, and the Gulf campaign with its extraordinary expenditure rates makes answering them urgent. What Australia Should Prioritize When asked directly what concerned him most if Australia faced a conflict scenario in ten months’ time, Bronk’s answer was characteristically honest and somewhat contrarian. He was, he said, less worried about Australia than Australians might expect him to be. From a Chinese planning perspective, projecting force down toward Australia means operating at the far end of an extended logistics chain, through submarine-patrolled waters, against a force that is tactically proficient, equipped with modern high-end systems, and operating from a sovereign base. That is not an attractive proposition. The more probable Chinese coercive option, in Bronk’s assessment, would be firing conventionally armed intermediate-range ballistic missiles into the waters near a major city, creating political shock without triggering a full military response. His actual concern was munitions. If Australia commits to alliance obligations in a Taiwan scenario pressing forward in the southern flank to prevent China from simply ignoring the southern theater forward-deployed Australian forces run short of precision munitions quickly. That gap, in his view, is where Australian investment most needs to be focused. His assessment of the Royal Australian Air Force was striking: for the people and budget invested, the RAAF deploys more practical firepower against high-end threats than the RAF does at roughly double the budget and triple the personnel. This was not flattery. It was a direct critique of how UK defense investment has been allocated, and by extension, a reminder that organizational efficiency and targeting firepower are not the same thing as dollar expenditure. The Strategic Logic of Offense and Defense Bronk’s closing argument was one that bears repeating in any capital currently debating the balance between IAMD investment and long-range strike development. IAMD investment is only valuable insofar as it buys time for offensive options to deny your opponent their immediate theory of victory. China will not start an operation against Taiwan expecting a two to three year attritional struggle. They will start it because they have convinced themselves it can succeed, and that Australia and Japan can be intimidated into staying out. That calculation is more likely to be modified by visible Australian long-range strike capability by the capacity to threaten Chinese theories of victory than by impressive air defense architecture. This is not an argument against IAMD investment. It is an argument for understanding what IAMD is for. Defense buys time. Offense denies the adversary’s plan. You cannot defend all the cities. You cannot cover all the coastlines. What you can do is make the cost of the offensive campaign prohibitive which requires that you have the strike capability to execute that threat credibly. The kill web framework I have been developing with Ed Timperlake is relevant here. The question is not whether you can defend each node. The question is whether your distributed force can continue to generate combat power and threaten the adversary’s operational plan even as individual assets are degraded. That requires hardening, dispersal, and redundancy on the defensive side and credible, ranged offensive capability on the other. Bronk’s analysis from three active theaters of competition points to the same conclusion: the force that survives to generate sorties and deliver precision effects shapes the operational calculus. Everything else is a supporting investment. Justin Bronk’s remarks at the Sir Richard Williams Foundation seminar provided significant insight into lessons being demonstrated in real world operations. The harder question is whether the acquisition decisions, the doctrine, and the command structures are moving fast enough to absorb them. ∗ The Geran-2, Russia’s domestically produced version of Iran’s Shahed-136, is a low-cost, long-range loitering munition used extensively against Ukrainian infrastructure. Powered by a pusher-propeller piston engine, it cruises at 150–190 km/h with a range of 1,000–2,000 km, carrying a 30–50 kg warhead now upgraded with tungsten shrapnel for improved anti-personnel effects. Russia replaced the original Iranian avionics with GLONASS navigation, Russian flight-control units, and hardened jamming-resistant electronics, while scaling production at the Alabuga SEZ into the thousands of units; by late 2025, variants had also gained 4G connectivity and alleged Starlink-based terminal guidance. The Geran-3 is a jet-powered evolution of the same family, using a small turbojet to reach 300–370 km/h and closing gaps that Ukrainian air defenses had exploited against the slower Geran-2 swarms, with the KometaM-12 CRPA antenna system added to defeat the spoofing and jamming that had degraded earlier waves with both variants now deployed together in mixed strike packages launched from new forward bases near the Ukrainian border. Also published in DefenceInfo

'Ten Months, Not Ten Years: Mike Pezzullo on Australia’s Strategic Moment' in Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance Proceedings - Paper 2, Sir Richard Williams Foundation Seminar, 23 April 2026 By Dr Robbin Laird Mike Pezzullo speaking to the 23 April 2026 Sir Richard Williams Foundation Seminar. There is a particular kind of clarity that comes from a man who spent four decades inside the machinery of Australian national security and is now, as he put it, “free” to speak. Mike Pezzullo, former Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs and one of the most consequential figures in Australian strategic planning over the past generation, brought that clarity to the Sir Richard Williams Foundation seminar in Canberra on April 23, 2026. The message was direct, unsparing, and organized around a single uncomfortable proposition: Australia needs to prepare for a fight tonight force focused on the right timeline. Geography as Inheritance, Geopolitics as Problem Pezzullo opened by insisting on a distinction that he said most strategic commentary fails to make: the difference between the geostrategic and the geopolitical. Australia’s geostrategic inheritance, he argued, remains among the most favorable of any nation on earth. No natural predatory adversary abuts its frontier. Unlike Ukraine, Lithuania, Taiwan, or the Philippines, Australia is not surrounded by hostile neighbors. The sea approaches are long, the country has never gone to war with a neighbor, and for the greater part of its federation it has enjoyed a kind of strategic insulation that most nations would envy. The one historical exception Pezzullo cited was instructive. In the 1950s and 1960s, Australian strategic thinking grew genuinely anxious about a militarized Indonesia under Sukarno. That anxiety reached its apex when Prime Minister Menzies met President Kennedy in the Oval Office in 1962 and was told directly that ANZUS might not apply in a conflict with Indonesia, depending on the geopolitical circumstances of the day. Menzies walked out of that meeting thinking about bombers. The decision to pursue the F-111 flowed from it, as did a now-declassified exploratory nuclear weapons program that continued until 1979. But that was the exception, Pezzullo emphasized. The rule has been strategic comfort, underpinned first by British sea power and then by American dominance of the Pacific. The only time that “protective dome,” as he called it, was genuinely penetrated was in 1942 and that penetration was not directed at Australia per se but at denying the Americans the ability to use Australia as a base for force projection against Imperial Japan. The structural logic of that moment, Pezzullo argued, is the logic Australia faces again today. Twenty Years of Warning Time, Squandered The core of Pezzullo’s argument was historical and personal. Around Anzac Day 2006 — twenty years ago — he had just been appointed Deputy Secretary for Strategy and was reading himself into what was then highly classified intelligence on Chinese military development. He went to see the then-Chief of Defence Force, Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston who was present in the room at the seminar. The conversation, Pezzullo recalled, turned on a single question: does the classical model of Australian defense still work? The “classical model” or the Defence of Australia doctrine that crystallized in the 1987 Dibb white paper under the Hawke government was a homeland defense model predicated on fighting in the sea-air gap to Australia’s north, relying on Australian combat forces but assuming U.S. enablers would be available. It was a model built for a world where the most plausible adversary was a militarized Indonesia, not a global peer competitor projecting naval and air power across the western Pacific. By 2006, Pezzullo told Houston, that model was breaking down. The PLA was developing the capability to push the Americans back. The American defensive perimeter was likely to reset along a line running from Alaska through Japan, the Philippines, and Guam, through northern Australia, with submarines potentially based in Western Australia. That assessment was not speculative. It was derived from intelligence that has since been substantially declassified through the Pentagon’s annual China Military Power reports. The warning time, in other words, was not ten years from 2006. It was two compounding ten-year cycles: they had already lost the first one, and by 2026 they were burning through the second. The National Defence Strategy and Its Limits Pezzullo was measured and fair about the 2026 Australia’s National Defence Strategy. For what it sets out to do, hedging against a classical ten-year planning horizon with a major recapitalization of the maritime force, the Hobart-class destroyers, the Hunter-class frigates, the Mogami-class ships, the Virginia-class submarines and eventual SSN-AUKUS boats, it is, he acknowledged, not a bad document. His quibbles were at the margins: the balance perhaps tips too heavily toward the Navy at the expense of the land force and Air Force, though he understood the recapitalization logic driving that weighting. But the NDS is a force for 2036, not for tonight. And Pezzullo’s central argument was that the two timelines, ten years and ten months, are not interchangeable. The force being built will not arrive before the window of maximum strategic risk. As he put it with characteristic bluntness: “It is not the force that we need in ten months’ time.” The Taiwan Window and the Phone Call The ten-month timeline is not arbitrary. Pezzullo walked through the intelligence record: former INDOPACOM Commander Admiral Philip Davidson’s assessment that the PLA was aiming to be ready in 2027; his successor Admiral John Aquilino’s consistent messaging; Admiral Sam Paparo’s more recent warnings about the capability window. Most significantly, he cited former CIA Director William Burns’s remarkable statement at Georgetown in February 2023, notable precisely because CIA directors speak of estimates and judgments, not of intelligence, that the Agency had intelligence indicating President Xi had directed the PLA to be ready to give him the military option against Taiwan in 2027. Pezzullo was careful about probability. He attributed roughly a 10 percent chance that Xi will use military force, blockade, quarantine, seaborne assault, airborne assault, or some combination, against Taiwan. That is not a high probability. But allowing for the weather window and the seasonal rhythms of military operations in the Taiwan Strait, the most opportune period runs approximately March-April 2027, roughly ten months from the date of the seminar. He then sketched a scenario that cut through the usual diplomatic abstractions. Imagine the phone call. The American president, whoever that may be, calls Canberra. He has not yet decided what to do. But he needs Australia to understand that the infrastructure being built in northern Australia is not theater. It is for war-fighting. He is asking: are you with me? The answer is binary. Political management, the art of the talking point, the art of threading the needle between commitment and ambiguity, will not work in that moment. The question will have been asked, and it will require an answer. Three Things That Need to Happen Now Against this backdrop, Pezzullo laid out three immediate requirements. First, the government should commission the writing of a war book, a genuine national contingency planning document led by Defence and the Department of Home Affairs that addresses fuel and petroleum reserves, pharmaceutical stockpiles, the protection of critical infrastructure now in private hands, the status of internet connectivity and undersea cables, and the question of whether vulnerable populations would be moved out of northern cities like Darwin if strikes became a possibility. This is not the war book of the 1930s or 1950s, he noted. Society has changed fundamentally. Critical infrastructure is privately owned and operated. Those private operators need to be inside the tent. Second, diplomacy needs to be restructured. The pursuit of middle-power coalitions, useful for some purposes, is not the right instrument for the problem Australia faces. As Pezzullo framed it, the credible risk of military conflict is a coalition fight in which the United States and China are the principals and Australia’s role flows from its geography. Two conversations need to happen, with clarity and without equivocation. In Beijing: Australia does not want this war, will work against it, and will honor its alliance commitments. In Washington: here is what we need to know about the plan, here is how command arrangements should work in the Australian theater, and here is the conversation about force flow and strike options that has not yet been had. “We don’t need Douglas MacArthur,” he said pointedly. “We’ll command the local theater.” Third, the NDS needs to be reframed on two time horizons simultaneously. The ten-year horizon document is broadly adequate for an independent defensive Australia force in 2036. The missing document is the ten-month readiness plan, working with what the ADF has available now, not what it will have when the shipbuilding programs mature, and focusing ruthlessly on unit proficiency, platform readiness, and the institutional capacity to fight tonight. The honesty of that framing was bracing. Pezzullo has spent a career inside the system, navigating the constraints that systems impose. He knows what it costs to say these things clearly. The Sir Richard Williams Foundation seminar gave him a room of people who understand both the stakes and the machinery, and he used it to make a case that does not require elaboration or diplomatic softening. For those of us who have spent time analyzing how Western democracies manage the gap between strategic reality and public communication, Pezzullo’s remarks were a useful benchmark. The “fight tonight” standard, the readiness criterion that animates much of the best allied defense thinking today, is not a slogan. It is a question that has to be answered honestly, even when the honest answer is uncomfortable. Also published in DefenceInfo

'So how to exploit Australia’s strategic advantages?' in Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance Proceedings - Paper 1 Sir Richard Williams Foundation Seminar, 23 April 2026 By Dr Robbin Laird ACM (Retd) Mark Binskin, Chair, Sir Richard Williams Foundation, opening the seminar on 23 April 2026 The Sir Richard Williams Foundation seminar of 23 April 2026 brought together practitioners, analysts, industry leaders and allies to confront a deceptively simple question: what does it actually mean to exploit Australia’s strategic advantage, not in a decade, but now? “Fight Tonight” was not a slogan but a stress test. It was applied to platform readiness, training pipelines, industrial capacity, space architecture, intelligence integration, munitions stockpiles and, crucially, the honesty with which government explains the strategic situation to its own citizens. The program framed four themes: building combat mass and depth across domains; generating tempo; enhancing industry and the national support base; and surviving to operate through redundancy and dispersal. Presentations made clear that these are not sequential objectives but simultaneous requirements under a tightening timeline. The Strategic Clock Mike Pezzullo, former Secretary of Home Affairs, delivered the day’s most arresting intervention: Australia is preparing for the wrong war on the wrong timeline. The dominant ten-year planning horizon embedded in most defence documents simply does not match the window of strategic risk. Pezzullo traced his own reckoning back to Anzac Day 2006, when serving as Deputy Secretary for Strategy he read highly classified intelligence on PLA developments and put a single question to then-CDS Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston: does the classical Defence of Australia model still work? That model, codified in the 1987 Dibb white paper, assumed focus on the northern approaches, ready U.S. enablers and a militarised Indonesia as the most plausible challenge, not a global peer competitor contesting U.S. access. By 2006, he had concluded the framework was breaking down as the PLA built the means to push the Americans back. In Pezzullo’s judgment, much of the ensuing twenty-year warning time has been squandered. The 2026 National Defence Strategy, with its recapitalisation agenda and aspiration toward a more independent maritime and strike capability by the mid-2030s, is not wrong in what it attempts but it is not the force Australia needs ten months from now. His ten-month clock is anchored in the intelligence record: Admiral Philip Davidson’s 2027 window assessment, consistent warnings from Admirals Aquilino and Paparo, and former CIA Director William Burns’s 2023 statement that Xi has directed the PLA to be ready to give him a military option on Taiwan by 2027. Pezzullo assigns around a ten percent probability to the actual use of force, blockade, quarantine or assault, but notes that the most opportune period runs through the March–April 2027 weather window, roughly ten months from the seminar. His prescription was pointed: commission a genuine national war book, restructure diplomacy around a coalition fight in which the United States and China are the principal antagonists, and produce a ten-month readiness plan in parallel with ten-year recapitalisation. Air Power and Fighting Depth Air Marshal Stephen Chappell, Chief of Air Force, offered the most comprehensive account of how Australia’s advantages can be converted into deterrent airpower. His framework, building fighting depth, ran from geography and basing through human capital, technical investment and national aviation potential to allied integration. Geographically, Chappell encouraged thinking of Australia not as a single island continent but as an archipelago, drawing on the work of Andrew Carr. An archipelago is defended by disaggregation, dispersal and distributed operations, the logic underpinning RAAF posture and exercises such as Bronze Crocodile, which develops runway repair and airfield recovery at Townsville, and Point Group Rising, which reconnects the force to the reality that bases are the core of the weapon system. On human capital, Chappell was emphatic: the RAAF is a tier-one force, and he offered evidence rather than rhetoric. An E-7A Wedgetail deployed at short notice into a two-way range in the Middle East, with crews sheltering under air raid sirens before regenerating airpower. The Air Warfare Instructors Course, running since 1954, produces graduates who hold their own with the best at Nellis. An Air Mobility graduate captained a C-130J into Tel Aviv between ballistic missile barrages to evacuate more than a hundred Australians and New Zealanders. Technically, the F-35A, Super Hornet and Growler fleets remain at the leading edge. The MQ-28 Ghost Bat has now demonstrated its credentials as a genuine combat system by firing an AMRAAM and shooting down a target. The National Air Power Council, co-chaired by Chappell and his transport counterpart, is designed to harness the broader national aviation ecosystem, some 50,000 Australians and approximately 2,200 airfields, into a coherent airpower resource. AIRCDR Matthew McCormick, Commander Air Combat Group, gave the practitioner’s view from inside the force. The long transition following F-111 withdrawal is over. ACG has moved into spiral upgrading, with the F-35 as its backbone and the focus shifting from standing up platforms to maximising their effect. The tri-national Joint Simulation Environment at Pax River is central: RAAF pilots arrive confident and leave appropriately “recalibrated,” and at the most recent event the ACG team achieved the highest score of the year against a field dominated by U.S. weapons school students and instructors. In an era where fighter kill ratios against peers are closer to two-to-one than the ten-to-one of the Top Gun era, this matters. Lessons from Active Theatres Justin Bronk of RUSI brought the perspective of someone who walks airbases under fire and draws operational conclusions from live conflict. Across Ukraine, Operation Epic Fury in the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific, he interrogated the evolving balance between integrated air and missile defence (IAMD) and precision strike. In Ukraine, Bronk challenged the mythology of “cheap mass.” Achieving meaningful effects against defended targets may demand 250–400 one-way attack UAVs per strike, at US$30,000–50,000 each, carrying warheads in the three-to-six pound range. Against hardened or high-value targets of the kind that matter in an Indo-Pacific scenario, such systems are, at best, decoys and enablers that increase the probability of kill for high-end munitions; they do not replace ARGMs, PRSMs and other standoff weapons. In the Gulf, Bronk cautioned against overstating Epic Fury as an IADS-busting triumph. The United States executed an accomplished strike campaign, but much of the opponent’s IAMD architecture had already been systematically degraded by Israeli operations in 2024–25. More instructive were the limits of coercive leverage: making a fight existential by signalling regime change closes off negotiated off-ramps and incentivises hardline resistance rather than compromise. Bronk’s starkest warning concerned stockpiles. Gulf partners expended more than 2,000 PAC-3 interceptors during the campaign at around US$6 million per round. SM-3s for U.S. forces run to roughly US$43 million each, and standard “shoot-shoot-look” protocols mean expending the equivalent of an F-35’s cost per incoming threat. Most Western air forces, Australia included, cannot afford to field defensive stockpiles at that scale while simultaneously buying the offensive long-range strike that actually deters. The implication is a greater emphasis on passive defence: hardening, dispersal and rapid sortie generation, rather than false comfort in exquisite but unaffordable interceptors. His strategic bottom line was crisp: defence buys time but offence denies the adversary’s theory of victory. The force that survives to generate sorties and deliver precision effects is the force that shapes the operational calculus. Maritime Power in Transition Rear Admiral Matt Buckley, Acting Chief of Navy, spoke from three decades at sea, much of it in submarines. Deterrence, he argued, is not a single platform but an integrated all-domain effect generated by persistent posture and credible lethality. Availability and lethality must be held together: a lethal ship that is not available does not deter, and an available ship without credible lethality invites challenge. On any given day around half the fleet is at sea: as Buckley spoke, 23 ships and more than 1,600 sailors were deployed, and his weekly readiness brief rarely shows fewer than ten ships underway. This is readiness as practised behaviour, not a planning assumption. The Enhanced Surface Combatant Lethality Program has integrated Tomahawk, NSM, SM-6 and the Aegis Baseline 9 upgrade onto the Hobart class, transforming them from presence platforms into serious contributors to joint deterrence. The Navy must nonetheless grow by roughly 25 percent in people and platforms within a decade, approximately 4,000 personnel, into increasingly complex systems. Buckley’s confidence rests on people: the night before the seminar he was informed that a young Australian nuclear technician, in only her second year, had recorded the highest score ever for her category at U.S. Nuclear Power School, a performance the Americans are putting on a plaque. Space, Industry and the Alliance Space is no longer a distant frontier; it is essential infrastructure already under daily pressure. Jeremy King of Lockheed Martin Australia and New Zealand stressed that any force that loses assured space access loses the ability to integrate joint effects at scale: an F-35 without resilient space-derived communications, navigation and ISR is a diminished platform, and a joint force without space is joint in name only. The proliferation of counterspace programmes from three nations in 2018 to at least thirteen tracked in the 2026 Secure World Foundation report makes resilience by design, allied architectures and deliberate industrial integration non-negotiable. Harvey Wright of Optus Satellite highlighted how collapsing launch costs and the dominance of commercial satellites, now roughly ninety percent of objects on orbit, have transformed the strategic equation. His framework centred on sovereign control of critical ground infrastructure, delivery at commercial speed rather than multi-year procurement tempo, and targeted investment in key technologies with Australian firms and research institutions: the logic of distributed resilience applied to space. Industry speakers Kris Christensen of BAE Systems and Richard Morris of Northrop Grumman brought the readiness debate to the factory floor. Christensen’s war-footing workshops use back-casting from a 2027 crisis to ask what workforce, business and capability decisions leaders will wish they had made in 2026. Readiness, she argued, is threefold: workforce readiness (people, clearances, surge capacity), business readiness (the ability to contract and decide at speed), and capability readiness (spares, tooling, local suppliers). If it cannot be sustained, it is not really a capability. Morris argued for reversing the traditional mission–mass–manufacturing–margin logic. In a zero-warning world, margin must come first because it sustains industry at all. Profits fund investment; investment builds factories; factories generate combat mass. The proliferation of FPV drones in Ukraine emerged from industrial actors making practical, profitable decisions at scale, not from mission-first procurement doctrine. Australia’s distinctive advantage is the current influx of primes from the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea and Japan seeking global production capacity. Seen through a margin-first lens, this is a strategic asset that can embed Australian industry inside global supply chains before crisis arrives. The alliance dimension threaded through Colonel James Landreth’s remarks as USINDOPACOM’s liaison to HQJOC and through Bronk’s munitions warning. The U.S.–Australia alliance is an asymmetric advantage adversaries cannot replicate, built over a century and manifested in deeply integrated operations, logistics and intelligence. Australia as theatre provides distributed logistics that mitigates tyranny of distance, and posture initiatives. from Marine Rotational Force Darwin to enhanced bomber rotations and Talisman Sabre, translate geography into operational reality. But as Justin Bronk underscored, the comfortable assumption that the United States can always act as “arsenal of last resort” has eroded, as even close allies such as Estonia and Finland now discover in delayed deliveries and public caveats. For Australia, Bronk’s guidance could not have been clearer: the munitions available on day one of conflict are effectively the munitions available for the duration. Buy as many as you can, as fast as you can. Advantage as Active Work Taken together, the 2026 Williams Foundation seminar portrayed a country with genuine strategic advantages that require constant work to exploit and can be rapidly eroded by complacency, underinvestment or institutional slowness. Geography is a fact but not a strategy. Partnerships are a foundation but demand maintenance. Recapitalised forces are a starting point that must be organised and operated to deliver integrated combat power at the moment of decision. Across domains, the outlines of an answer emerged. Geographically, dispersal, distributed operations and agile combat employment convert continental depth into resilience. The human dimension benefits from sustained investment in a tier-one workforce capable of extraordinary performance when circumstances demand. Technically, spiral upgrades, autonomous systems like Ghost Bat and integrated space architectures extend reach without exhausting scarce human capital. Industrially, a margin-first logic and integration into global supply chains build sovereign capability before crisis. In intelligence and space, disciplined foundational work and allied-by-design architectures turn data into decision advantage and fragility into resilience. Over all of this hangs Pezzullo’s challenge: the clock is wrong, and someone must say so. “Fight Tonight” is not a metaphor. It is a standard against which Australian readiness must now be honestly measured. Also published in Second Line of Defense

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Paper #13 By Dr Robbin Laird The strategic landscape facing Australia has fundamentally shifted. For the first time since World War II, the Australian Defence Force is genuinely preparing to defend the homeland rather than simply contributing to distant coalitions. This stark reality was laid bare in a recent presentation by Air Commodore Peter Robinson, Commander Air Combat Group, to the Sir Richard Williams Foundation, where he outlined the Royal Australian Air Force’s current capabilities, limitations, and the unique challenges of potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific theatre. The New Strategic Reality Robinson’s presentation began with an uncomfortable truth: the probability of Australia being drawn into conflict is higher now than at any point in recent decades. This assessment reflects a broader strategic shift that has moved Australia from a mindset of expeditionary operations supporting allies to one of homeland defence and regional deterrence. The “fight tonight” philosophy that Robinson espouses represents a fundamental change in military thinking. Rather than planning for future capabilities or waiting for ideal conditions, it demands readiness with current assets against existing threats. This approach acknowledges that while defence planners may prefer to wait for next-generation systems or perfect training conditions, adversaries operate on their own timelines. The urgency of this perspective is underscored by recent conflicts worldwide. Robinson pointed to the India-Pakistan engagement as an example of how “getting night one right” can set the tone for an entire conflict. The Pakistani air force’s effective performance on the opening night, despite not changing the strategic balance between the nations, demonstrated the importance of seamless integration between training, equipment, and command structures from the conflict’s outset. Geographic Imperatives of the Indo-Pacific Perhaps no factor shapes Australia’s defence challenge more than geography. Robinson’s presentation included a striking comparison: the 2,000-mile span from Perth to Cairns equals the distance from northern Finland to Greece – essentially the entire NATO front line. Yet where Europe offers dense populations, extensive infrastructure, and multiple allied nations within close proximity, Australia faces vast oceanic distances with scattered island chains and limited friendly bases. This slide in Air Commodore Peter Robinson’s presentation superimposed Australia on the entire European theatre and on the lower right he placed the size of Ukraine within the Indo-Pacific region. This “tyranny of distance” creates both advantages and disadvantages for Australian defence planning. The vast spaces provide natural barriers and complicate enemy planning, but they also stretch Australian forces thin and create enormous logistical challenges. Unlike European theatres where reinforcements might arrive within hours, the Indo-Pacific demands self-reliance and forward positioning. The strategic implications are profound. Rather than defending at Australia’s borders, effective defence requires projecting power far forward into the region. As Robinson emphasized, it’s preferable to “kill the ship before it launches missiles” than to intercept those missiles after launch. This forward defence concept demands not only advanced capabilities but also extensive regional partnerships and basing arrangements. The Alliance Imperative Robinson’s presentation highlighted an often underappreciated aspect of modern air power: the critical importance of relationships and trust-building at tactical levels. The RAAF maintains an extensive exercise program across the Indo-Pacific, from Thailand and Indonesia to Japan and the Philippines. These engagements serve multiple purposes beyond simple training. First, they build operational familiarity with regional air forces, creating the foundation for potential coalition operations. Second, they demonstrate Australian commitment to regional security while providing deterrent effects. Third, they offer practical experience in operating from austere or unfamiliar bases – a capability that may prove essential in conflict. The depth of integration with U.S. forces represents a particular strategic asset. Exercises like Red Flag and Green Flag provide Australian aircrew with exposure to high-end combat scenarios at classification levels that offer genuine insight into potential regional conflicts. This integration extends beyond simple interoperability to shared intelligence, planning, and operational concepts. Recent developments, such as taking weapons into Southeast Asia for the first time in decades during Exercise Cope West in the Philippines, represent significant policy and operational milestones. Such exercises test not only tactical procedures but also the diplomatic and logistical frameworks necessary for forward operations. Technological Transformation The RAAF has undergone dramatic modernization over the past decade, transitioning from platforms that had served since the 1970s and 1980s to cutting-edge systems. The replacement of F-111s with Super Hornets, introduction of EA-18G Growlers, and transition to F-35 Lightning II aircraft represents one of the most comprehensive air force modernizations attempted by any nation. This transformation has created capabilities that Robinson describes as exceptional. The Growler electronic warfare aircraft, in particular, has “far outshone what we thought that one platform could have done.” The retention of Super Hornets until 2040, originally planned for much shorter service, reflects their continued relevance as strike platforms capable of carrying weapons that the F-35 cannot accommodate, including hypersonic attack cruise missiles. However, Robinson emphasized that platform acquisition represents only the beginning of capability development. Modern aircraft undergo continuous spiral upgrades, with new software and hardware packages appearing approximately every two years. The pace of these upgrades is not determined by convenient scheduling but by adversary capabilities and threats. The Weapons Equation Perhaps no aspect of “fight tonight” readiness is more straightforward than weapons stockpiles. Robinson’s formula is deliberately stark: “start with a ludicrous number, double it and add a zero, and that’s about right.” This reflects the reality that modern conflicts consume precision weapons at rates that consistently surprise planners. The RAAF currently possesses what Robinson describes as “exquisite weapons” capable of engaging tier-one maritime and land targets throughout the region. The service has demonstrated this capability through live-fire exercises, including the successful employment of LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) from Super Hornets. The addition of hypersonic attack cruise missiles adds a capability that Robinson suggests will “put our adversaries on the back foot” due to the extended ranges and speeds involved. However, the weapons challenge extends beyond current stockpiles to production capacity and resupply during conflict. The ongoing war in Ukraine has demonstrated how quickly precision weapons can be exhausted and how difficult rapid replenishment can prove, even for major military powers. Operational Art and Integration Modern air warfare extends far beyond individual platforms and weapons to encompass “operational art” or the integration of multiple capabilities to achieve strategic objectives. The RAAF’s Air Operations Center represents the nerve centre for this integration, bringing together not only air assets but capabilities across all domains and government agencies. This integration reflects a fundamental shift from traditional air power concepts focused on air-to-air combat and close air support to multi-domain operations incorporating cyber, space, electronic warfare, and information operations. The goal is to create asymmetric effects that leverage Australia’s technological advantages while mitigating numerical disadvantages. The development of collaborative combat aircraft, advanced unmanned systems that can operate alongside manned fighters, represents the next evolution in this integration. These systems promise to provide additional mass and capability while reducing risk to highly trained aircrew. Sustainment Challenges While confident about immediate readiness, Robinson acknowledged significant concerns about sustained operations. The transition from “fight tonight” to “fight for weeks” introduces challenges around logistics, maintenance, and force regeneration that currently lack clear solutions. The presentation highlighted several specific concerns. Fuel distribution represents a critical vulnerability, leading to investments in mobile refueling systems and distributed storage to reduce dependence on large, vulnerable fuel farms. Base defence and passive protection measures, including hardened aircraft shelters and dispersed operations, seek to maintain capability even under attack. Perhaps most challenging is the human dimension of sustained operations. The RAAF has invested heavily in developing what Robinson terms “the world’s best tacticians” through the Air Warfare Instructor program. These highly skilled personnel represent irreplaceable assets whose loss would significantly degrade capabilities. Emerging Threats and Unknown Unknowns Robinson’s presentation candidly addressed several areas of concern that extend beyond traditional air warfare. Counter-drone capabilities represent a “known known,” everyone recognizes the threat posed by small unmanned systems, but developing effective countermeasures remains challenging. Cyber warfare represents a “known unknown” for everyone expects cyber attacks, but their precise effects and the most effective responses remain unclear. The integration of cyber effects with kinetic operations could fundamentally alter the character of conflict in ways that are difficult to predict or prepare for. Information warfare, particularly targeting military families through social media, represents another emerging threat. The psychological impact of false reports about casualties or operational failures could significantly affect force morale and effectiveness. Force Protection and Resilience The presentation emphasized that protecting forces extends beyond traditional force protection measures to encompass information security, operational security, and family support systems. Modern conflicts increasingly blur the lines between military and civilian targets, making comprehensive protection more challenging. The RAAF’s approach to resilience includes both technical measures, such as hardened communications and distributed operations, and human measures, such as support systems for military families. The goal is to maintain operational effectiveness even under sustained attack or pressure. Leadership and Human Capital Robinson concluded his presentation by emphasizing the exceptional quality and dedication of Australian Defence Force personnel. He noted that current service members demonstrate “a really clear sense of purpose for the environment that we’re in, more so than I think I’ve ever seen in my career.” This human dimension often receives less attention than platforms and weapons but may prove decisive in conflict. The transition of the RAAF over the past decade, accomplished without additional personnel, demonstrates the adaptability and commitment of the force. However, it also highlights the importance of preserving this human capital through appropriate pacing of operations and training. Conclusion: Ready but Realistic Air Commodore Robinson’s assessment presents a force that is genuinely ready for immediate challenges but realistic about limitations. The RAAF has successfully modernized its platforms, developed advanced operational concepts, and built strong regional partnerships. However, questions remain about sustained operations, emerging threats, and the broader industrial base required for prolonged conflict. The “fight tonight” philosophy represents more than military planning. It reflects Australia’s strategic reality in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific. While hoping for continued peace, the RAAF is preparing for scenarios that seemed unthinkable just a decade ago. The quality of that preparation, and the realism about its limitations, may ultimately determine Australia’s security in an uncertain future. The featured image: Air Commodore Peter Robinson, Commander Air Combat Group presenting to the seminar. Also published in Defense.info

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Paper #12 By Dr Robbin Laird The contemporary Indo-Pacific security environment presents a fundamental challenge to traditional alliance structures: how can middle powers maintain strategic autonomy while deepening military cooperation with major power partners? This dilemma is particularly acute for Australia, which faces the competing imperatives of economic integration with China, security dependence on the United States, and growing regional leadership responsibilities. The intersection of these pressures reveals broader tensions about the future of alliance partnerships in an era of major power competition. During my trip to Australia in September 2025, I discussed the dynamics of Australian defence and alliance issues with my colleague Stephan Frühling from the Australian National University. The Erosion of Alliance Certainties The comfortable assumptions of the post-Cold War era are dissolving. Australia’s traditional model of alliance partnership, providing ‘joint facilities’ and political support in exchange for American security guarantees, is proving inadequate for contemporary challenges. As Stephan Frühling observes, “despite the progress made since 2020, U.S.-Australia force posture cooperation remains limited by the lack of alliance institutionalization and political agreement, especially domestically in Australia, on its aims and objectives.” This institutional gap reflects a deeper problem: alliance cooperation is proceeding faster than political consensus. Recent force posture initiatives, including submarine rotational deployments, bomber base upgrades, and combined logistics enterprises, represent significant operational progress. However, as Frühling notes, “there is no sign that this will bring U.S. and Australian national defence postures into closer alignment.” The disconnect between tactical cooperation and strategic integration reveals fundamental tensions in contemporary alliance management. The experiences of Ukraine and Israel, where American support came with significant operational constraints and political interference, have reinforced Australian concerns about maintaining decision-making autonomy in potential conflicts. As one Australian strategic analyst observed to me, “we can’t rule out the possibility that we might actually have to conduct some operations, major operations, to deter and demonstrate capability to deter even China, but also cause enormous damage to the baddies if the United States decides it’s going to sit on its hands.” This stark assessment reflects growing recognition that the reliability of any single patron, even the United States, cannot be taken for granted in an era of domestic political volatility and competing global priorities. The challenge lies not in abandoning alliance relationships but in restructuring them to account for new realities. The Strategic Independence Imperative Australia’s response to this challenge involves moving from alliance dependence toward what can be characterized as strategic independence or developing sufficient autonomous capability to deter aggression while maintaining productive partnerships. This transformation requires abandoning traditional military thinking focused on capital ships and large platforms in favour of what Australian analysts call “high-leverage capabilities.” With a population of 25 million and constrained defence budgets, Australia cannot compete through numerical superiority. Instead, it must invest in systems that can “stop even a major aggressor in its tracks” through technological sophistication. The recently announced $1.7 billion investment in Ghost Shark autonomous underwater vehicles exemplifies this approach. Unlike traditional submarine programs that deliver small numbers of expensive platforms over decades, the Ghost Shark program is designed for rapid scaling and continuous technological evolution. This modular, rapidly deployable approach creates multiple, simultaneous threats that complicate adversary decision-making while avoiding catastrophic loss scenarios associated with traditional platform-centric strategies. The difference between deploying 15 Ghost Shark systems versus 180 represents a qualitative shift in deterrent capability that potential adversaries must factor into their planning. However, strategic independence requires more than advanced weapons systems. It demands industrial capacity to sustain those systems independently of vulnerable supply chains. The Ghost Shark program’s emphasis on domestic battery production illustrates this broader requirement. Producing sophisticated autonomous systems while importing all critical components from potentially hostile nations represents a fundamental strategic vulnerability. Deliberate Incrementalism as Strategic Framework Frühling proposes “deliberate incrementalism” as a framework for managing the tension between deepening cooperation and preserving autonomy. This approach acknowledges that alliance cooperation driven by “bottom-up, practical cooperation has a tendency to overstep political bounds, leading to tensions if such boundaries are then reestablished.” The solution involves carefully managed steps toward greater cooperation that respect political realities and sovereignty concerns. Frühling recommends that allies “try to say a little more each time” in their strategic dialogues, gradually building shared understanding without rushing toward comprehensive integration that may prove politically unsustainable. This approach requires several key elements: gradual development of shared strategic understanding without forcing perfect alignment; focus on overlapping operational needs rather than abstract strategic coordination; and development of graduated response mechanisms that provide decision-making flexibility during crises. For the U.S.-Australia relationship specifically, deliberate incrementalism means focusing on “areas that reflect overlapping national interests in operations closer to Australia, and on strengthening deterrence by facilitating horizontal rather than vertical escalation.” This acknowledges that Australia’s primary strategic concerns centre on its immediate region rather than broader global competition with China. The Economics of Strategic Independence Strategic independence cannot be divorced from economic considerations. The concept of “embedded logistics” offers a framework for addressing supply chain vulnerabilities while serving broader alliance interests. Rather than relying on expensive, vulnerable supply lines stretching from Hawaii to forward deployment areas, the United States could dramatically reduce Pacific logistics costs by supporting Australian industrial capacity development. This approach serves multiple strategic purposes. It reduces Australian dependence on any single supplier, including traditional allies whose domestic politics might disrupt supply relationships. It provides the foundation for supporting regional partners who lack sophisticated defence industries. Most importantly, it enables Australia to maintain military operations during extended periods when great power politics might limit access to traditional suppliers. The Chinese economic coercion playbook, demonstrated globally over the past decade, reinforces the importance of economic resilience. Australia’s experience of Chinese trade restrictions in 2020-2021 illustrates both the vulnerability and the potential for adaptation. Despite Chinese restrictions on coal, wine, and other exports, Australia’s economy proved more resilient than anticipated, finding alternative markets and strengthening partnerships with countries like India and Japan. Operational Integration Without Strategic Subordination Strategic independence does not mean strategic isolation. Australia’s future security depends on deepening operational integration with trusted partners while maintaining decision-making autonomy. The level of operational integration already achieved between Australian and American forces extends far beyond traditional alliance cooperation. Current systems integration means, as one Australian strategic analyst noted to me, “if you’ve got a sensor saying, here’s a PLA task group here, what’s the best asset for actually striking that in 15 minutes time, if it’s an Australian F-35 flight… it’s a joint thing.” This represents genuine operational integration where tactical decisions are made based on capability and positioning rather than national boundaries. Similar integration is developing with other regional partners. Australia’s expanding training relationships, from long-standing arrangements with Singapore to new partnerships with Germany, reflect a diversification strategy that reduces dependence on any single relationship while building interoperability across multiple partnerships. The key insight is that operational integration can coexist with strategic independence when partners maintain genuine capabilities rather than depending solely on a dominant ally’s systems. Australia’s ability to contribute meaningfully to integrated operations depends on having independent capabilities to contribute, not just political willingness to follow American leadership. Regional Leadership and Multi-Alignment Strategies Australia’s evolving strategic role extends beyond self-defence to regional leadership through capability sharing and operational cooperation. The expanding relationship with the Philippines illustrates this potential. Australia’s new treaty arrangements and joint exercises with Manila represent more than bilateral cooperation for they demonstrate how middle powers can create alternative security networks that complement rather than compete with traditional alliance structures. The autonomous systems focus provides particular opportunities for regional leadership. Maritime autonomous systems offer an ideal platform for sharing operational information and coordinating responses to grey-zone activities without requiring massive infrastructure investments associated with traditional military cooperation. Australia could position itself as a regional hub for autonomous systems development and deployment. This regional role serves broader strategic purposes by creating multiple decision-making centres that complicate adversary planning. Rather than focusing solely on potential American responses to regional aggression, potential adversaries must account for Australian capabilities, Philippine responses, Japanese actions, and other variables that cannot be controlled through bilateral pressure on Washington. The Challenge of Institutional Innovation The limitations of traditional alliance structures have encouraged institutional innovation. Frühling points to NATO’s Graduated Response Plans as a model for developing alliance-level operational planning that respects sovereignty concerns while building collective capabilities. These plans identify “what reinforcements might be necessary given the geographic and strategic situations in different parts of the alliance, the logistics of how they could be deployed, the political and military decision points and their timing.” For the U.S.-Australia relationship, this might involve developing contingency plans that outline decision points and operational requirements without predetermining political responses. By identifying when and where decisions must be made, allies can build collective capabilities while preserving decision-making autonomy. However, institutional innovation must account for the reality that “the vast majority of Australian staff officers, defence planners, and public servants who must make myriad practical decisions that collectively shape Australian force posture and structure outcomes do so with less of an explicit policy framework on how Australia’s national objectives align with alliance cooperation than their predecessors had two decades ago.” This institutional gap reflects broader challenges facing middle powers: maintaining the bureaucratic and political capacity for independent strategic thinking while deepening operational ties with major power partners. The risk is that tactical cooperation proceeds faster than political consensus, potentially creating vulnerabilities or misunderstandings during crises. Managing Resource Asymmetries Middle powers face stark resource asymmetries when competing with major powers for influence. China has more than doubled its ballistic and cruise missile arsenal in recent years and possesses the world’s largest shipbuilding capacity. These disparities create fundamental constraints on middle power strategic options, particularly when attempting to balance relationships with competing major powers. However, resource limitations also create opportunities for middle powers to focus on areas where they possess comparative advantages. Rather than attempting comprehensive balancing strategies, countries like Australia can concentrate on specific domains such as technology standards, environmental governance, critical minerals, or regional stability mechanisms where their contributions carry disproportionate weight. Australia’s approach to critical minerals illustrates this strategy. By leveraging natural resource advantages while building processing and value-added capabilities, middle powers can maintain strategic relevance despite overall resource constraints. This requires patient investment in research and development capabilities but provides the foundation for genuine strategic autonomy. The Deterrent Effect of Uncertainty The deterrent effect of strategic independence capabilities depends not only on their technical performance but on adversary uncertainty about their capabilities and employment concepts. The psychological impact of facing an unknown number of sophisticated autonomous systems operating in contested waters may exceed their direct military effect. This uncertainty principle applies more broadly to strategic independence. Adversaries who could previously predict Australian responses based on American decision-making patterns now face genuine uncertainty about Australian capabilities and intentions. This uncertainty serves deterrent purposes regardless of the specific capabilities involved. The Pacific Island “fingerprinting” campaigns by Chinese forces illustrate the importance of distributed response capability. Australia’s ability to respond independently to such provocations, without requiring American approval or support, provides options for graduated responses that might be impossible within traditional alliance frameworks where every action requires extensive coordination. Implications for Alliance Architecture The Australian experience suggests several principles that may guide successful alliance evolution in an increasingly multipolar world. First, economic diversification remains crucial for maintaining strategic autonomy. Countries that become too dependent on single major power relationships risk losing freedom of manoeuvre during crises. Second, institutional flexibility proves more valuable than rigid alliance commitments. Middle powers benefit from arrangements that allow them to contribute to collective security without compromising their ability to make sovereign decisions about force deployment and strategic priorities. Third, regional focus and comparative advantage strategies offer more sustainable approaches than attempts at comprehensive great power balancing. Countries that identify specific domains where their contributions carry disproportionate weight can maintain influence despite resource constraints. The solution requires reframing alliance cooperation from patron-client relationships toward genuine strategic partnerships. This means American acceptance that capable allies will make independent decisions about capability employment, while Australian recognition that strategic independence requires genuine capability development rather than political posturing. Conclusion: The Future of Strategic Partnership Australia’s movement toward more strategic independence represents neither abandonment of alliance relationships nor pursuit of complete autonomy. Instead, it reflects adaptation to a strategic environment where traditional security guarantees are no longer sufficient for national survival. The goal is developing sufficient independent capability to deter aggression while maintaining the partnerships necessary for broader regional stability. This transition requires sustained political commitment to capability development, industrial investment, and regional engagement. It demands American acceptance that genuine partners exercise genuine autonomy in strategic decision-making. Most importantly, it requires recognition that strategic independence and alliance partnership can reinforce rather than contradict each other when properly structured. The stakes extend beyond Australian security to the broader question of whether democratic middle powers can maintain autonomy in an era of great power competition. Australia’s success or failure in developing genuine strategic independence while maintaining productive partnerships will influence similar efforts across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The path forward involves deliberate incrementalism, carefully managed cooperation that builds collective capabilities while respecting sovereignty concerns and political realities. This approach acknowledges that the comfortable assumptions of the post-Cold War era offered the illusion of permanent security through alliance dependence. The emerging strategic environment demands the reality of security through capability and partnership. Australia’s challenge is managing this transition successfully while contributing to broader regional stability, a transition that is not only possible but essential for long-term security in an increasingly contested world. Also published in Defense.info

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Paper #11 By Dr Robbin Laird The recent Williams Foundation seminar on military readiness did not really highlight or provide detailed perspectives on how uncrewed systems could empower the fight tonight force and help drive the ongoing operational re-design process which is becoming a key part of military readiness. Australia finds itself positioned to leverage this technological moment. With sophisticated defence systems, experienced operators, and strategic partnerships that provide access to cutting-edge uncrewed platforms, the country can build immediate capability while establishing the foundation for future autonomous operations. The challenge lies not in waiting for perfect technology, but in maximizing the substantial potential that exists within current systems. I have worked for a number of years on various autonomous and unmanned or uncrewed systems. And in so doing, I have talked for a number of years to Australian practitioners of the art in government, industry and the analytical community. Based on those conversations let me provide a supplement to the recent Williams Foundation Seminar on the “fight tonight” force. The Language Problem: Autonomy Versus Reality One of the most significant barriers to effective implementation of uncrewed systems lies in the misuse of language. Defence professionals routinely describe current systems as “autonomous” when they are anything but. This linguistic imprecision creates unrealistic expectations and diverts attention from what these systems can accomplish. True autonomy, as defined in military glossaries, refers to systems capable of sensing their environment, making independent decisions, and fulfilling commander’s intent without human intervention. On a five-level autonomy scale, where level one represents remotely piloted systems and level five represents full autonomy, current military systems operate predominantly at levels two and three. Consider the MQ-9 Reaper, often cited as an autonomous system. In reality, it features a traditional cockpit with throttle, stick, and pedals. It is fundamentally a piloted aircraft with some automated features. Even advanced systems like the MQ-4C Triton operate as a level two automated platforms, executing pre-programmed missions without making independent decisions. The emerging category of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), including Australia’s Ghost Bat, represents level three systems requiring external sensing and human oversight. The U.S. Air Force’s decision to call these “collaborative” rather than “autonomous” aircraft demonstrates a more honest assessment of current capabilities. This distinction matters because when defence professionals claim current systems are autonomous, they create dangerous misunderstandings. Policymakers and the public begin to believe that full autonomy has arrived, leading to unrealistic expectations and inappropriate deployment concepts. More critically, it diverts attention from developing practical applications for the technology which we actually possess. The China Challenge as Catalyst for Innovation If we look at the challenge posed by China we get an insight into a key competitor who is driving a way forward with uncrewed systems. China’s approach to uncrewed systems development provides valuable insights into practical applications while demonstrating the urgency of immediate adoption. Beijing has invested heavily in diverse uncrewed platforms, from sophisticated combat air vehicles to converted legacy aircraft equipped with remote control systems. This approach demonstrates how quantity, adaptability, and rapid deployment can create strategic advantage even without perfect autonomy. China’s strategy appears to embrace the philosophy of “good enough” technology deployed at scale rather than perfect systems deployed in small numbers. Their conversion of legacy fighters like the MiG-17 into uncrewed platforms creates substantial asymmetric capabilities using existing airframes and relatively simple automation packages. These platforms may lack sophistication but provide significant tactical options for saturating defences, conducting reconnaissance, or serving as decoys. More concerning is China’s development of hundreds of new uncrewed combat air vehicles designed from the ground up for automated operations. These platforms, while not fully autonomous, can conduct complex missions with minimal human oversight and pose significant challenges to traditional air defence concepts that assume human decision-making timelines. This reality presents Australia with both challenge and opportunity. While China may field large numbers of simpler uncrewed systems, Australia can leverage its technological sophistication and operator expertise to develop more effective employment concepts for advanced automated platforms. The key lies in rapid adoption and iterative improvement rather than waiting for perfect solutions. The Chinese model also illustrates how uncrewed systems can complement rather than replace traditional platforms. Instead of viewing future conflicts through the lens of platform-versus-platform comparisons, Australia can explore how automated systems enhance the effectiveness of existing capabilities like F-35s, Wedgetails, and maritime patrol aircraft. Australia’s advantage lies not in matching Chinese production numbers but in developing superior employment concepts that maximize the effectiveness of sophisticated automated systems. This requires getting current technology into operators’ hands quickly to build the experiential knowledge necessary for tactical innovation. Ghost Bat: A Platform of Immediate Potential At the seminar, the Chief of Air Force, Air Marshal Chappell underscored that Australia’s Ghost Bat program represents an exceptional opportunity to build practical experience with advanced uncrewed systems while contributing to current defence needs. Even in its initial ISR configuration, Ghost Bat offers multiple pathways to enhanced capability that can be exploited immediately rather than waiting for future weaponization. But beyond any initial considerations of the long-term future of such an aircraft, it should be noted that the platform’s sophisticated sensor suite and data processing capabilities position it perfectly for immediate integration with existing ISR networks. Paired with high-altitude platforms like the Triton, Ghost Bat could provide complementary low-altitude surveillance over critical maritime chokepoints, creating layered sensor coverage that significantly enhances situational awareness in contested areas. Integrated with Wedgetail early warning systems, Ghost Bat could extend sensor networks beyond traditional line-of-sight limitations and provide additional data correlation capabilities. This application would be particularly valuable in Australia’s maritime approaches, where the platform could investigate contacts detected by high-altitude sensors while crewed aircraft maintain safe standoff distances. The platform’s collaborative architecture also creates opportunities for innovative tactical applications. Multiple Ghost Bat aircraft could coordinate autonomous sensor sweeps, automatically sharing data and adjusting coverage patterns based on emerging intelligence requirements. This swarming approach to ISR could overwhelm adversary counter-surveillance efforts while providing unprecedented situational awareness. Ghost Bat’s modular design creates opportunities for adaptive employment that accelerate capability development. Rather than waiting for a single system to fulfill all requirements, Australia could explore specialized variants optimized for specific missions. Sophisticated ISR platforms could focus on complex surveillance tasks requiring advanced sensor fusion and data processing, while simpler “arsenal aircraft” could be designed specifically for missile carriage and engagement extension. This modular approach allows parallel advancement in multiple mission areas while building the operational foundation necessary for more advanced applications as technology matures. Each variant would contribute immediately to defence capability while providing lessons that inform future development. The weaponization timeline, rather than being viewed as a limitation, creates opportunities for innovative employment concepts. Current ISR-focused operations would build operator expertise in human-machine collaboration, develop tactics for contested environments, and identify integration opportunities with existing platforms. When weapons integration becomes available, operators would already possess the experiential foundation necessary for effective combat employment. Perhaps most importantly, Ghost Bat’s current configuration allows for immediate experimentation with multi-domain operations. The platform could coordinate with naval systems for maritime surveillance, support land forces through tactical reconnaissance, or enhance air operations through collaborative sensing. These applications would build the joint operational concepts necessary for future autonomous operations while delivering immediate capability enhancement. Learning from Real-World Innovation The conflict in Ukraine demonstrates how practical adoption drives effective uncrewed system employment far more effectively than theoretical development cycles. Ukrainian forces have successfully integrated multiple types of automated systems through rapid deployment, field modification, and continuous operator feedback. This experiential approach has produced remarkably effective tactical applications in timeframes measured in weeks and months rather than years and decades. One could argue that the Ukrainian model reveals several key insights applicable to Australian defence planning. First, operator experience drives innovation more effectively than engineering specification. Ukrainian forces have modified commercial drones, adapted software systems, and developed new tactical employment concepts based on immediate battlefield feedback. This rapid iteration cycle has produced solutions that no amount of peacetime analysis could have predicted. Second, the most effective uncrewed systems often emerge from adapting existing platforms rather than developing new ones. Ukrainian forces have successfully weaponized commercial quadcopters, modified racing drones for reconnaissance, and converted civilian aircraft for military missions. This approach leverages existing technology while focusing innovation efforts on mission-specific adaptations. Third, effective employment often requires combining multiple simple systems rather than developing single complex platforms. Ukrainian operations frequently employ coordinated formations of different uncrewed systems, each optimized for specific tasks but working together to accomplish complex missions. This distributed approach proves more resilient and adaptable than single-platform solutions. The Ukrainian experience also demonstrates the importance of human-machine collaboration rather than complete automation. The most successful operations combine automated platforms with human decision-making, leveraging machine advantages in persistence and precision while retaining human advantages in creativity and adaptation. For Australia, this suggests accelerating Ghost Bat and other uncrewed system deployment to build operator expertise and identify practical applications. Early operational experience will drive innovation more effectively than theoretical analysis, while contributing to defence readiness throughout the development process. The Ukrainian model also suggests opportunities for rapid capability enhancement using existing platforms. Commercial systems could be adapted for military missions, existing crewed aircraft could be modified for uncrewed operations, and software systems could be rapidly modified based on operational feedback. This approach would build accelerated capability while providing the experiential foundation necessary for more advanced development. Beyond Platform-Centric Thinking My own work on maritime autonomous systems suggests that current uncrewed systems offer opportunities to enhance existing capabilities through mission-focused integration rather than platform replacement. This approach recognizes that the greatest immediate value lies not in developing new platforms but in amplifying the effectiveness of current systems through intelligent integration. The F-35’s advanced mission systems exemplify this potential. Through software modifications, these aircraft can coordinate seamlessly with uncrewed systems, creating collaborative networks that multiply effectiveness without requiring entirely new platforms. F-35s could serve as battle managers for uncrewed systems, providing targeting data, coordinating sensor coverage, and enabling distributed operations that complicate adversary response. Similarly, existing ISR platforms like Triton and Poseidon could be enhanced through integration with uncrewed systems that extend their sensor reach and provide additional data collection points. Triton aircraft could coordinate with lower-altitude uncrewed systems to create comprehensive maritime surveillance networks, while Poseidon aircraft could deploy and control specialized systems for underwater detection or electronic warfare. The key insight is that current platforms already possess the computational power, communication systems, and operator expertise necessary for uncrewed system integration. What’s required is focused software development and operational concept refinement rather than entirely new acquisition programs. These modifications can occur rapidly when approached as capability enhancement rather than platform replacement, delivering improved effectiveness on accelerated timelines while building toward more advanced future applications. The timeline advantages are substantial: software modifications can be implemented in months, operator training can be accomplished in weeks, and tactical concept development can occur through immediate experimentation. The SRG Model: Mission-Focused Excellence In my earlier discussions with RAAF officials involved with Ghost Bat, I argued that the Surveillance and Reconnaissance Group exemplifies the problem-solving approach that maximizes uncrewed system potential. SRG personnel focus on mission accomplishment using available tools rather than waiting for perfect platforms. This mindset makes them ideal candidates for pioneering uncrewed system employment concepts while providing a model for broader defence innovation. SRG’s approach centres on understanding mission requirements first and then adapting available technology to meet immediate needs. This methodology contrasts sharply with platform-centric thinking that defines ideal systems and then waits for their development. The SRG model prioritizes practical solutions that deliver capability while building experience for future advancement. This operator-focused approach ensures that system development remains grounded in practical operational requirements rather than theoretical specifications, increasing the likelihood of effective real-world employment. SRG personnel regularly adapt systems for missions beyond their original design parameters, developing innovative employment concepts through experimentation and iteration. The SRG experience with existing ISR platforms provides valuable insights for uncrewed system employment. Their success in coordinating multiple sensor platforms, correlating data from diverse sources, and adapting to dynamic intelligence requirements demonstrates the operational concepts necessary for effective uncrewed system integration. Perhaps most importantly, SRG personnel think in terms of network effects rather than individual platform capabilities. They understand how different systems can complement each other, how data sharing multiplies effectiveness, and how adaptive employment can create capabilities greater than the sum of individual parts. This network-centric thinking is essential for maximizing uncrewed system potential. The SRG model suggests how Australia can accelerate capability development across all domains. Rather than waiting for perfect systems, operators can begin experimenting with current technology to identify practical applications and develop innovative employment concepts. This experiential approach builds the institutional knowledge necessary for future advancement while delivering immediate capability enhancement. The model also demonstrates the importance of empowering operators to drive innovation rather than restricting development to acquisition specialists. SRG success comes from giving experienced operators the authority to experiment, adapt, and innovate based on operational requirements rather than bureaucratic constraints. An Adoption-First Strategy The path to maximizing uncrewed system potential lies through adoption-focused rather than acquisition-focused policies. This approach recognizes that current automated systems offer significant capability that can be enhanced through practical employment and continuous improvement. The strategy emphasizes getting technology into operators’ hands quickly rather than waiting for perfect solutions. Key principles include accepting current automation levels while developing employment concepts appropriate to existing capabilities, prioritizing rapid deployment to build operator experience, and embracing iterative improvement based on operational feedback. This approach leverages uncrewed systems’ inherent advantage: their ability to be modified rapidly through software updates and mission system changes. The adoption-focused strategy recognizes that uncrewed systems derive their greatest value from adaptability rather than initial perfection. Unlike traditional platforms that require extensive modification for capability changes, uncrewed systems can be reprogrammed, reconfigured, and redeployed for new missions in timeframes measured in weeks rather than years. The strategy also emphasizes parallel development streams that allow different organizations to pursue complementary approaches simultaneously. While traditional combat aviation units explore tactical employment concepts, ISR specialists can develop surveillance applications, logistics specialists can explore support missions, and joint practitioners can explore close air and tactical ISR support to the land force. This parallel approach accelerates overall progress while building expertise across multiple domains. Implementation requires institutional changes that empower operators to drive innovation rather than waiting for centralized acquisition decisions. Operators need the authority to experiment with systems, modify employment concepts, and adapt tactics based on immediate feedback. This operational empowerment accelerates innovation while ensuring that development remains grounded in practical requirements. The adoption-first strategy also recognizes the importance of accepting incremental progress rather than pursuing revolutionary breakthroughs. Each improvement in automation, each enhancement in human-machine collaboration, and each advancement in tactical employment contributes to overall capability development while building toward future autonomous potential. Building Toward 2040: The Journey Advantage Viewing full autonomy as a 2040 destination rather than a current requirement creates space for systematic capability building that delivers value throughout the development process. This journey perspective enables honest capability discussions that acknowledge current limitations while working systematically toward greater independence. It allows for realistic operational planning that leverages current strengths while building toward future potential. Each generation of systems can incorporate greater automated decision-making while maintaining appropriate human oversight, building operator expertise and institutional knowledge essential for eventual autonomous operations. The progression from level two to level three to level four automation provides natural development milestones that allow for systematic capability advancement. The journey approach also recognizes that autonomous systems will require different operational concepts, training programs, and institutional structures than current platforms. Building these foundations takes time, but the process can begin immediately using current technology. Operators can develop human-machine collaboration techniques, organizations can adapt command structures, and institutions can build the cultural familiarity necessary for autonomous operations. This progressive development approach offers several advantages over revolutionary transformation attempts. It allows for continuous learning and adaptation, reduces risk by enabling incremental testing and refinement, and maintains operational capability throughout the development process. Rather than waiting for autonomous breakthroughs, defence organizations can build systematically toward autonomous potential while leveraging current capabilities. The timeline also aligns with strategic planning horizons that account for evolving threats and technological development. Rather than rushing toward capabilities that may not be ready, Australia can build steadily toward autonomous potential while maximizing current opportunities. This approach ensures that investment in uncrewed systems delivers immediate returns while building toward future strategic advantage. The journey metaphor also enables more realistic resource allocation and capability planning. Rather than betting everything on autonomous breakthroughs, defence planners can invest systematically in automation advancement while maintaining current operational effectiveness. This balanced approach reduces risk while ensuring continuous capability improvement. Perhaps most importantly, the journey approach recognizes that autonomous operations will emerge from enhanced human-machine collaboration rather than human replacement. The most effective autonomous systems will leverage human creativity, adaptability, and judgment while automating routine tasks and providing superhuman persistence and precision. Building this collaborative foundation requires practical experience that can begin immediately with current technology. Conclusion: Seizing the Moment Australia stands at a unique moment in military technology development. Current uncrewed systems offer substantial capability that can enhance defence readiness immediately, while providing the foundation for more advanced autonomous operations in the future. The convergence of sophisticated platforms like Ghost Bat, proven automated systems like Triton and Reaper, and advanced integration capabilities in existing platforms creates unprecedented opportunities for capability multiplication. The key to success lies in practical adoption that gets systems into operators’ hands quickly and builds capability through experiential learning. This approach recognizes that the greatest advances in uncrewed system employment will come from operators who understand both the potential and limitations of current technology, rather than from theoretical analysis by acquisition specialists. The technology exists today to multiply Australia’s defence effectiveness through uncrewed system integration. Ghost Bat can begin contributing to ISR missions while building toward more advanced applications. Existing platforms can be enhanced through uncrewed system integration that leverages current computational power and communication systems. Operators can begin developing the expertise necessary for future autonomous operations while contributing to current defence needs. The opportunities extend across all domains of military operations. Maritime surveillance can be enhanced through coordinated networks of crewed and uncrewed platforms. Air operations can be multiplied through collaborative combat concepts that leverage both human creativity and machine persistence. Land operations can be supported through tactical reconnaissance and logistics applications that reduce risk to human personnel. Most importantly, Australia can leverage its technological sophistication and operator expertise to develop employment concepts that maximize the potential of current automated systems while building toward the autonomous future. The country’s tradition of military innovation, combined with access to advanced technology and experienced personnel, creates ideal conditions for pioneering effective uncrewed system employment. The strategic implications are substantial. While potential adversaries may focus on quantity over quality, Australia can demonstrate how sophisticated automation, innovative employment concepts, and superior human-machine collaboration can create decisive advantages. This approach plays to Australian strengths while building the foundation for future autonomous superiority. The choice facing Australian defence planners is not between current limitations and future perfection, but between seizing immediate opportunities and waiting for perfect solutions that may never arrive. Current uncrewed systems, properly employed, can enhance defence capability today while building the operational foundation necessary for an autonomous journey towards 2040. The path forward is clear: embrace the potential of current uncrewed systems, accelerate their practical adoption through operator-focused development programs, and build the operational foundation necessary for autonomous excellence. Australia’s defence advantage lies not in waiting for tomorrow’s technology, but in maximizing today’s opportunities while building systematically toward future potential. Also published in Defense.info For a video discussing this article, see the following:

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Interview Paper #10 By Dr Robbin Laird Australia faces one of the world’s most daunting maritime security challenges. With 37,000 kilometers of coastline and the third-largest exclusive economic zone globally, the Australian Maritime Border Command must protect an area so vast that traditional approaches simply cannot scale effectively. To put this in perspective, Australia’s maritime responsibility covers more ocean than the entire continental United States, stretching from tropical waters in the north to the Southern Ocean, encompassing shipping lanes vital to global commerce and fishing grounds that support both local communities and international fleets. But rather than accepting these limitations, The Australian Maritime Border Commander under the leadership of Rear Admiral Brett Sonter is pioneering a fundamentally different approach. He is leading quiet revolution in security/defence thinking, moving away from traditional acquisition paradigms toward collaborative innovation that delivers results faster, more affordably, and with greater operational relevance than would be possible if USVs were simply considered to be science projects marking their way through a conventional procurement processes. The Geography of Challenge Understanding the scale of Australia’s maritime security challenge requires grappling with numbers that defy easy comprehension. The country’s exclusive economic zone spans approximately 8.2 million square kilometers larger than the continental United States and roughly equivalent to the size of Brazil. This maritime domain includes everything from busy shipping corridors near major ports to remote stretches of ocean hundreds of miles from the nearest land. Within this vast area, the Maritime Border Command must detect and respond to illegal fishing, drug smuggling, people trafficking, environmental violations, and potential security threats. Traditional approaches might suggest building more patrol boats, hiring more crew, and establishing more bases but the mathematics of such an approach quickly become prohibitive. Even a fleet of hundreds of vessels could not provide meaningful coverage across such distances. This geographic reality has forced innovative thinking. Rather than trying to be everywhere at once, the challenge becomes creating a system that can detect activities of interest across vast areas and respond appropriately with limited resources. This is where uncrewed systems offer transformative potential, not as replacements for human judgment and capability, but as force multipliers that extend human reach and effectiveness. Breaking the Traditional Acquisition Mold The story begins with a failed experiment that, in many organizations, would have ended the conversation entirely. A previous six-month trial of uncrewed surface vessels had produced results that were, in Sonter’s words, “were not encouraging,” as he explained in our discussion at the end of July 2025. The technology underperformed expectations, the integration proved difficult, and the tactical achievements were disappointing. In the normal course of defence procurement, such results would likely have led to years of reviews, revised requirements, and eventually a completely different approach. But rather than writing off the technology due to initial poor results, Sonter recognized something crucial: the failure wasn’t in the technology itself, but in the approach to the adoption of the technology. Traditional procurement processes, administration, lengthy requirements development, and multi-year timelines, were fundamentally ill suited to the rapidly evolving world of unscrewed systems. These technologies mature and change so quickly that by the time traditional acquisition processes produce results, the underlying technology has often evolved and advanced beyond recognition. “The key benefit of this collaboration is the fact that the end user, in this case the operational commander and the industry technology partner are talking face to face,” Sonter explains. This direct engagement allowed for real-time feedback, rapid iteration, and the kind of deep understanding that emerges only through sustained collaboration. It’s an approach that treats capability development as an ongoing conversation rather than a one-time transaction burdened by process for process sake This shift represents a fundamental change in the relationship between military operators and industry innovators. Instead of the military defining requirements in isolation and industry responding with proposals, both sides work together to understand the operational challenges and explore technological possibilities. The result is solutions that neither side could have developed independently. The Power of Direct Engagement When Sonter took command in January 2024, he brought fresh eyes to the uncrewed systems challenge. Via the provision of uncrewed capability from Defence and specifically the Royal Australian Navy, [BS1] Sonter initiated a new collaboration with an Australian company, but this time with a different philosophy. Rather than starting with technical specifications or formal requirements documents, the collaboration began with operational commanders and industry engineers working side by side to understand the real-world challenges of maritime patrol. This approach allowed for the kind of nuanced understanding that formal requirements processes often miss. Industry partners could see firsthand how maritime patrol operations actually work, the environmental challenges, the crew limitations, the decision-making processes, the legal requirements. Military operators could understand the technical possibilities and constraints in ways that specification sheets never convey. The results were immediate and dramatic. Problems that had seemed intractable in the previous trial became solvable when both sides fully understood the context. Technical capabilities that had seemed irrelevant proved crucial when operators could explain their real needs. Most importantly, both sides developed the trust and communication patterns necessary for ongoing innovation. Setting Ambitious Goals When Sonter visited the Australian company deploying their systems in Darwin during the first half of 2024, they were rightfully proud of achieving detection ranges of two to three nautical miles, which was a significant improvement over previous capabilities. But when they asked about his requirements, Sonter deliberately set what he knew was a seemingly impossible target: 20 nautical miles. This wasn’t unrealistic expectation or unfair pressure; rather it was strategic leadership. Sonter’s approach wasn’t just about setting high targets. It was about creating a collaborative framework for reaching them. Rather than simply demanding better performance, he worked with the company to understand what would be required to achieve such capabilities and how operational concepts might evolve to take advantage of improved technology. By giving the company, a clear, ambitious goal, Sonter provided them with a “north star” that drove innovation in ways that incremental improvements never could. The company took this challenge seriously, working to understand not just the technical requirements but the operational context driving them. By setting targets that require breakthrough thinking rather than incremental improvement, leaders can inspire the kind of creative problem-solving that produces genuine advances. In this case, the 20-nautical-mile goal forced the company to rethink their entire approach to sensor integration, data processing, and platform design. The impact extended beyond just detection range. Working toward such an ambitious goal forced both sides to think holistically about the system, not just sensors, but data processing, communications, platform endurance, maintenance requirements, and integration with existing operations. The result was innovation across multiple dimensions simultaneously. From Platforms to Payloads One of the most significant insights I took away from this collaboration is the shift from thinking about platforms to thinking about payloads and effects. Traditional acquisition focuses on buying ships, aircraft, or vehicles or discrete pieces of equipment with defined specifications and capabilities. Sonter’s approach focuses on the capabilities these platforms deliver via the sensors, the data, the operational effects that actually matter for mission success. I raised in our discussion that as long as the platform is viable, one is clearly focused on what the payload can deliver. This payload-centric thinking allows for much greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness, as different payloads can be optimized for different operational environments and requirements. Consider the implications: instead of buying a specific type of uncrewed vessel, Australia can focus on the sensing, communication, and data processing capabilities needed for maritime patrol. Different platforms might be optimal for different areas, for example, what works in the rough seas off Western Australia might be completely inappropriate for the calm waters of the Great Barrier Reef. But the payloads that provide maritime domain awareness could be common across platforms. This approach also enables much more rapid adaptation to changing requirements. New sensors can be integrated as they become available. Software updates can add new capabilities. Platform designs can evolve without requiring complete program restarts. The focus shifts from acquisition of fixed assets to development of evolving capabilities. The payload-centric approach also changes the economics of defence procurement dramatically. Instead of large, infrequent platform purchases, military organizations can make smaller, more frequent investments in payload improvements. This reduces risk, enables faster adaptation to new threats, and allows for more experimentation with emerging technologies. Building Security Clusters The Maritime Border Command project has evolved far beyond simple uncrewed patrol boats operating in isolation. Sonter is now developing what he calls “security clusters” or integrated teams combining uncrewed surface vessels, uncrewed aerial vehicles, and crewed platforms, all working together under a hybrid command structure that balances centralized oversight with decentralized execution. These “security clusters” represent a new operational concept that takes advantage of the unique capabilities of different platform types. Uncrewed surface vessels provide persistent presence and can carry heavy sensor payloads for extended periods. Uncrewed aerial vehicles offer rapid response and the ability to investigate contacts quickly across large areas. Crewed platforms bring human judgment, legal authority, and the capability to conduct interdictions and boardings. The concept of teaming between crewed and uncrewed systems has been discussed theoretically for years, but Sonter’s approach provides practical insights into how this hybrid approach actually works. “It’s not simply a matter of having different types of platforms operating in the same area. It requires careful orchestration of capabilities, clear communication protocols, and operational concepts that leverage the strengths of each system type”. For example, an uncrewed surface vessel might detect a contact of interest and begin tracking it while transmitting data to a command center. An uncrewed aerial vehicle could be launched to provide additional perspective and closer inspection. Only if the situation warrants human intervention would a manned vessel be dispatched, arriving with detailed information about the contact and clear evidence of any violations. This teaming concept addresses a fundamental challenge in uncrewed systems: how to leverage their strengths while compensating for their limitations. Uncrewed systems excel at persistence, can operate in dangerous environments, and don’t suffer from crew fatigue. But Australia’s maritime border mission requires human judgment for interdiction, boarding, and law enforcement, activities that will always require manned platforms for both practical and legal reasons. The “security cluster” concept also enables new approaches to command and control. Instead of everything being centrally controlled from headquarters, operational decision-making can be distributed to the level where the best information is available. Local commanders can coordinate responses using available assets, while higher headquarters maintains oversight and can provide additional resources when needed. The Economics of Smart Defence Beyond the tactical advantages, this approach delivers significant economic benefits that extend far beyond simple cost savings. By using uncrewed systems for initial detection and surveillance, Australia can reserve its expensive crewed assets for situations that truly require human intervention. This isn’t just about efficiency. It’s about fundamental economics of force structure and operations. Consider the full cost of deploying a crewed patrol vessel: fuel, crew salaries, maintenance, port facilities, training, insurance, and depreciation. For routine surveillance missions, these costs can be enormous relative to the intelligence value gained. An uncrewed system, by contrast, has much lower operating costs and can remain on station for extended periods without the human factors that limit manned operations. The personnel implications are equally significant. Maritime patrol operations are demanding on crew, particularly in remote areas and difficult weather conditions. By reducing the number of routine patrols required, uncrewed systems can improve crew rest, reduce turnover, and allow personnel to focus on missions that truly require their skills and judgment. Evidence-Based Operations Traditional maritime patrol often involves making decisions based on incomplete information, a vessel behaving suspiciously, radio calls that don’t quite add up, or simply being in the wrong place at the wrong time. These situations can lead to tense confrontations, legal challenges, and significant resource expenditure for uncertain outcomes. When crewed assets now respond to a potential violation identified through uncrewed surveillance, they arrive armed with photographic evidence, sonar data, detailed tracking information, and often extended observation of the suspect vessel’s behaviour. This evidence not only improves the likelihood of successful prosecutions but also reduces the risk of confrontational situations escalating unnecessarily. “You’re delivering greater persistence, and therefore assurance on the decision to interdict which requires the few crewed assets available” Sonter explains. “This improved validation ensures I am not wasting valuable resources, improves crew morale by ensuring their time is spent on meaningful missions, and strengthens the legal foundation for enforcement actions”. The legal implications are particularly significant in maritime law enforcement. Courts require evidence that meets strict standards, and witness testimony can be challenged or contradicted. High-quality sensor data, properly collected and documented, provides the kind of evidence that supports successful prosecutions and deters future violations. This evidence-based approach also improves international relations and reduces diplomatic complications. When Australia takes enforcement action against foreign vessels, having clear documentation of violations reduces the likelihood of bilateral concerns and provides a factual foundation for any necessary discussions with other governments. Command and Control Evolution The development of security clusters has forced innovation in command-and-control concepts that extends far beyond uncrewed systems. Traditional maritime patrol operations are typically controlled centrally, with headquarters making deployment decisions and directing specific missions. This centralized approach works well for routine operations but can be too slow and inflexible for the dynamic situations that uncrewed systems enable. Sonter’s approach combines centralized oversight with decentralized execution, allowing local commanders to coordinate available assets in response to developing situations while maintaining higher-level awareness and control. This hybrid approach takes advantage of the detailed local knowledge that comes from working with unmanned systems while preserving the strategic perspective that centralized command provides. The technical aspects of this command evolution are significant but often overlooked. Uncrewed systems generate enormous amounts of data that must be processed, analysed, and acted upon. Traditional command structures weren’t designed for this volume and velocity of information. New approaches to data management, automated analysis, and human-machine teaming are required to make effective use of uncrewed system capabilities. There’s also a training and culture dimension to this evolution. Personnel at all levels must learn to work with uncrewed systems, interpret their data, and integrate their capabilities into operational planning. This requires new training programs, revised procedures, and sometimes fundamental changes in how maritime patrol operations are conceptualized and executed. A Template for Regional Cooperation Perhaps most significantly, this approach offers a template that could transform regional maritime cooperation across the Pacific and beyond. Traditional military cooperation often involves expensive platforms and complex agreements, payload-focused collaboration could enable much more flexible partnerships that respect national sovereignty while enhancing collective security. Countries across the Pacific face remarkably similar maritime security challenges. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing; and drug smuggling routes across multiple jurisdictions affects every nation with significant maritime domains. In addition climate change is creating new security challenges that no single nation can address independently. Rather than each nation developing separate, expensive solutions, they could collaborate on payload development and data sharing while maintaining their preferred platform approaches. A sensor system developed for Australia’s northern waters might be equally valuable to Indonesian, Philippine, or Japanese maritime forces, even if deployed on completely different vessels. Software for analysing maritime traffic patterns could be shared across multiple nations while each maintains control of their own platforms and operations. This kind of cooperation offers several advantages over traditional defence partnerships. It’s less high risk than sharing major military platforms. It can be implemented gradually, starting with technical cooperation and expanding as trust and capability develop. It respects each nation’s preference for supporting domestic industry capability while enabling beneficial technology sharing. And it can adapt quickly to changing requirements without requiring formal renegotiation. The data sharing aspects are particularly valuable. Maritime domain awareness is inherently collaborative, a vessel detected by Australian systems may enter Indonesian or Philippine waters, where continued tracking by their systems would benefit all parties. Standardized data formats and communication protocols could enable seamless tracking across national boundaries while preserving each nation’s sovereign control over their own operations. Distributed Security Effects Sonter’s vision for Maritime Border Command extends beyond individual missions to what he calls “distributed security effects” or the ability to create relevant security presence across vast areas through intelligent positioning of mixed assets. This addresses Australia’s fundamental challenge: how to maintain effective security coverage across distances that would challenge any navy. The concept isn’t just about having more assets; it’s about having the right assets in the right places with the right capabilities. An uncrewed surface vessel with advanced sensors can provide persistent surveillance in remote areas where maintaining a crewed presence would be prohibitively expensive. Aerial drones can rapidly investigate contacts across multiple surface platforms. Crewed vessels can respond only when human intervention is actually required, maximizing the effectiveness of limited personnel. This distributed approach also provides resilience against various forms of disruption. If one platform is damaged or compromised, others can adjust to maintain coverage. If weather prevents aerial operations, surface assets can compensate. If communication links are disrupted, individual platforms can continue operating autonomously while working to reestablish contact. The implications extend beyond immediate operational effectiveness to strategic deterrence. Potential adversaries must plan for the possibility of being detected anywhere within Australia’s vast maritime domain, even if they can’t identify exactly where surveillance assets are positioned. This uncertainty complicates planning for illegal activities and enhances the deterrent effect of limited patrol assets. Integration with Existing Forces One of the most practical aspects of Sonter’s approach is how it integrates with existing crewed platforms rather than replacing them. The Australian Defence Force and Australian Border Force has significant investments in patrol boats, aircraft, and other maritime assets that will continue operating for decades. Rather than creating parallel systems, the uncrewed capabilities are designed to enhance and extend existing capabilities. This integration approach reduces implementation risks and costs while maximizing the value of existing investments. Crew training can build on existing skills rather than requiring complete retraining. Maintenance infrastructure can be adapted rather than replaced. Operational concepts can evolve gradually rather than requiring revolutionary change. The integration also addresses practical concerns about uncrewed system reliability and limitations. When uncrewed systems are operating alongside manned platforms, human operators can intervene if systems malfunction or encounter situations beyond their programming. This provides confidence for commanders who might be hesitant to rely entirely on autonomous systems for critical missions. Perhaps most importantly, integration ensures that uncrewed systems enhance rather than threaten existing personnel. Rather than replacing jobs, the technology is creating new roles and expanding career opportunities for maritime professionals who can work with these advanced systems. Lessons for Military Innovation The Australian Maritime Border Command’s approach offers several crucial lessons for military innovation worldwide, lessons that extend far beyond uncrewed systems to broader questions of how defence organizations can adapt quickly to changing technologies and threats. Direct engagement works: When operational commanders work directly with industry partners, the feedback loop accelerates dramatically, leading to faster innovation and more relevant solutions. This requires breaking down traditional barriers between acquisition and operations, but the results justify the effort. Set stretch goals: Ambitious targets drive innovation in ways that incremental improvements cannot. Even seemingly “impossible” goals can inspire breakthrough thinking that produces unexpected solutions. Think effects, not platforms: Focus on what you need to accomplish, not on the specific tools you think you need to accomplish it. This enables greater flexibility and often reveals more cost-effective approaches. Start small, think big: Begin with manageable experiments that can demonstrate value, then scale the approach rather than the specific solution. This reduces risk while building confidence and capability. Measure what matters: Track not just what you accomplish, but what you avoid having to do — the missions not flown, the responses not required, the resources not wasted. This hidden value often exceeds direct benefits. Embrace iteration: Treat capability development as an ongoing process rather than a discrete procurement event. This enables continuous improvement and adaptation to dynamically changing requirements. Foster collaboration: Break down silos between operators, technologists, and industry partners. The best solutions emerge from sustained collaboration among people who understand different aspects of the challenge. Global Implications and Future Directions As this collaboration continues to evolve, it’s clear that we’re witnessing more than just a successful procurement experiment. This approach represents a fundamental shift in how military organizations can work with industry to develop capabilities that are both more effective and more affordable than traditional approaches. For Australia, the immediate benefits are clear: better coverage of vast maritime areas, more efficient use of limited resources, stronger evidence for legal proceedings, and enhanced deterrence against illegal activities. But the broader implications extend far beyond Australia’s shores. This model of collaboration could transform how regional partners work together on common security challenges, creating new forms of partnership based on shared capability development rather than traditional arms sales. It offers developing nations a path to enhanced maritime security that doesn’t require massive investments in traditional military platforms. And it provides a framework for addressing transnational challenges like illegal fishing and drug smuggling that require coordinated responses across multiple jurisdictions. The technological lessons are equally significant. The payload-centric approach could revolutionize defence procurement across multiple domains, not just maritime operations. The direct collaboration model could accelerate innovation in areas ranging from cyber security to space operations. The operations concept could enhance law enforcement and regulatory compliance across numerous fields. As nations worldwide grapple with expanding security challenges and constrained budgets, the Australian Maritime Border Command’s approach offers a compelling alternative. The future of maritime security may well be written in the waters off Australia, where innovative thinking about technology, collaboration, and operational concepts is creating new possibilities for protecting vast ocean domains with limited resources. Also published in Defense.info A podcast discussing this article is available here .

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Conference Proceeding s #8 By Dr Robbin Laird The ghost of inadequate preparation haunts modern military planning. Mrs. Marion Chapman’s 1949 letter to the Department of Air, lamenting her son’s death in the Pacific War, carries a haunting accusation that resonates today: “he, with others, was so poorly equipped, directed and eventually abandoned.” This stark reminder opened the panel discussion on building resilience capacity across defence industry, setting the tone for a sobering examination of Australia’s preparedness for sustained conflict. The panel, moderated by Chris McInnis of the Air Power Institute, brought together three distinct perspectives: Colonel Dave Beaumont from Defence’s National Support Division, Mike Prior from Boeing Defence Australia, and Group Captain Travis Hallen, whose PhD research examines Swedish air power development during the Cold War. Their discussion revealed uncomfortable truths about Australia’s current readiness posture and the complex challenges of building genuine resilience across the defence-industrial base. The Fight Tonight Fallacy The panel’s central thesis challenged one of defence planning’s most enduring concepts: the “fight tonight” mentality. McInnis opened with a quote from Phillips O’Brien’s recent work “War and Power”: “Wars go off the rails because they are extremely complex and difficult interactions that end up taxing militaries, economies, governments and societies from the beginnings of the productive process all the way to the battlefields. They are not decided on the battlefield. Rather, the battlefield reveals the states with the powers involved.” This perspective fundamentally reframes how military planners should approach readiness. The traditional focus on immediate tactical capability, while important, can obscure the more critical challenge of sustained operations. McInnis emphasized that an over-focus on fighting tonight tends toward “an overemphasis on the pursuit of decisive battle that’s a seductive mix doesn’t exist.” History, he noted, is littered with forces that won initial battles but lost wars due to inability to sustain operations. The German military machine of both world wars exemplifies this pattern, achieving spectacular early successes before collapsing under the strain of extended operations. Japan’s Pacific War experience mirrors this trajectory: brilliant tactical victories followed by inexorable decline as industrial and logistical limitations proved decisive. The lesson is stark: battles don’t decide wars; they reveal the underlying strength and stamina of the societies waging them. This historical pattern carries profound implications for contemporary defence planning. As McInnis observed, “states win wars, not militaries.” Military capability exists within and depends upon broader societal structures. The stamina of the state and society, rather than particular capabilities at any given moment, typically proves decisive. This reality demands a fundamental shift from tactical readiness to strategic endurance, from immediate capability to sustained resilience. The National Support Imperative Colonel Dave Beaumont’s presentation outlined the scope of this challenge through Defence’s emerging National Support concept. Drawing on historical precedent, he referenced historian Sean Nolan’s observation that modern military success requires winning “the campaign, then the year, then the decade.” Military organizations excel at tactical focus but struggle with longer-term perspectives, particularly the post-conflict stabilization and economic transformation that ensures lasting peace. Beaumont identified four pillars of Australia’s national support base: industry, workforce, social cohesion, and institutional decision-making capacity. Each pillar faces distinct challenges, but the industry component presents perhaps the greatest concern. While defence industry professionals understand their sector’s challenges and collaborate on solutions, the vast majority of Australia’s economy operates without daily consideration of defence requirements. Yet these civilian industries would prove critical during extended conflict. The challenge extends beyond traditional defence contractors to encompass telecommunications providers, transportation networks, energy suppliers, and basic manufacturing. As Beaumont noted, “it will matter that we’re communicating what the best potential needs of conflict may be, to Qantas, to Telstra and beyond.” This represents a fundamental shift from viewing defence industry as a specialized sector to recognizing the entire national economy as a potential defence resource. Current global events already demonstrate how civilian industries become military assets. Supply chains have been “securitized” and wielded as weapons in the current geopolitical environment. Nations must make strategic choices about suppliers and trading partners based on security considerations rather than purely economic factors. This reality demands national readiness that extends far beyond military forces to encompass infrastructure, workforce, and material requirements across society. The institutional component proves equally critical but often overlooked. Democratic societies require decision-making apparatus capable of rapidly prioritizing resources for war while maintaining democratic governance and social cohesion. This balancing act – preserving democratic values while mobilizing for sustained conflict – represents one of the most complex challenges facing liberal democracies in an era of great power competition. Industry’s Uncomfortable Truths Mike Prior’s presentation provided a candid assessment of industry realities. His perspective, shaped by 15 years in the Air Force followed by legal practice and defence industry experience, offered unvarnished insights into the gap between defence expectations and industry capabilities. Prior highlighted a fundamental misalignment in expectations between defence and industry. Military personnel often assume industry capabilities based on peacetime interactions and theoretical scenarios rather than understanding actual capacity and limitations. As Prior observed, “more often than not, those expectations are founded in presumption and certainly false assumptions.” This disconnect creates dangerous gaps in planning and unrealistic assumptions about industry responsiveness during crisis. The reservist dilemma exemplifies this challenge. Boeing Defence Australia employs approximately 900 active reservists, representing over 30% of their workforce. These personnel concentrate in critical areas: maintenance, modifications, and training. The company trains virtually all Australian E-7 Wedgetail operators through reservist instructors. If these individuals were activated for military service during a crisis, Australia’s Wedgetail training system would “cease overnight.” This creates an impossible choice: maintain critical civilian defence support capabilities or activate military reserves. Prior noted that defence cannot “spend the same $10 twice” – personnel cannot simultaneously serve in uniform and maintain their civilian industry roles. The challenge extends across Australia’s defence industry, with many veterans in critical positions also serving as active reservists. The workforce composition presents additional vulnerabilities. Rapid growth to meet expanding defence programs has created an experience gap. Currently, 30-35% of most defence industry workers have less than 18 months of experience. By next year, over 50% of sustainment program personnel will have been in defence industry for less than three years. This inexperience creates dangerous knowledge gaps during normal operations and could prove catastrophic during crisis mobilization. Prior also addressed industry’s commercial reality. While companies support defence missions passionately, they ultimately exist to generate profit. This creates tension between commercial interests and national security requirements, particularly regarding speculative investments in crisis preparedness without guaranteed contracts. Companies cannot indefinitely prepare for hypothetical scenarios without financial sustainability. The innovation challenge represents another critical concern. Industry personnel interpreted recent defence strategic reviews as declaring “innovation was dead” unless capabilities appeared in formal planning documents. This perception led to serious consideration of defunding advanced research capabilities, including Boeing’s Phantom Works division that developed the MQ-28 Ghost Bat unmanned aircraft. Such misunderstandings can inadvertently stifle the very innovation defence requires for future conflicts. Lessons from Swedish Resilience Group Captain Travis Hallen’s research into Swedish air power development during the Cold War provided compelling insights into how a small nation built world-class military capabilities through sustained commitment and strategic clarity. Sweden’s achievement appears remarkable: maintaining the world’s fifth-largest air force in 1991 with 425 domestically designed and built combat aircraft, despite having only 8.5 million people compared to Germany’s 61 million or Britain’s 57 million. Swedish success stemmed from necessity rather than choice. Geographic isolation and Cold War neutrality demanded self-reliance in defence capabilities. This necessity drove deliberate decisions about industry policy, force structure, and operational concepts over decades. Sweden didn’t achieve its capabilities through one or two decisions but through 50 years of consistent development. Hallen identified three key factors applicable to Australia’s situation. First, the Swedish Air Force maintained clarity about the military problem they were designed to solve – enabling national mobilization by fighting for 72 hours against Soviet invasion forces. This clarity shaped all other decisions about capability development and resource allocation. Second, Sweden developed deep understanding of how geography, history, culture, and population created unique requirements for Swedish air power. They didn’t attempt to replicate other nations’ solutions but developed approaches suited to their specific circumstances. This included designing systems operable by conscripts with minimal training, enabling rapid mobilization while maintaining high operational standards. Third, Swedish planners studied their own history extensively, learning from both successes and failures to inform future planning. This institutional memory provided continuity across political changes and ensured lessons weren’t lost during leadership transitions. The Swedish export strategy proved crucial for sustaining their defence industrial base. Recognizing that domestic demand alone couldn’t support advanced manufacturing, they designed systems for NATO interoperability to access export markets. They also pursued deliberate differentiation, creating capabilities dissimilar from standard NATO equipment to complicate adversary planning while offering export customers alternatives to mainstream options. Perhaps most importantly, Swedish success required societal commitment sustained across decades. The relationship between government, industry, and population enabled this long-term approach but isn’t easily transferable to other political systems. However, the methodology, systematic assessment of unique requirements and sustained commitment to addressing them, offers valuable insights for Australian planners. The Resilience Challenge The panel discussion revealed several interconnected challenges threatening Australia’s defence resilience. The workforce issue extends beyond reservist activation to include civilian workers who might simply leave during sustained conflict. Prior noted that Boeing already experiences weekly protests, and escalation to physical violence would likely prompt employee departures based on personal safety concerns. This vulnerability reflects broader societal questions about commitment during prolonged conflict. Unlike Sweden’s Cold War experience with clear existential threats and conscription-based societal involvement, Australia faces the challenge of maintaining civilian commitment during extended operations that may seem geographically distant from the homeland. The geographical concentration of defence industry in major cities presents additional vulnerabilities. As Prior observed, defence industry’s “ivory tower” locations in Brisbane, Newcastle, Adelaide, and other major centres are precisely the areas that would be difficult to defend during conflict. This concentration creates attractive targets while limiting defensive options. Cyber vulnerabilities compound these challenges. Basic cyber protection, data protection and monitoring systems, approaches unaffordable levels even before considering advanced threat mitigation. Industry has moved from “okay to not okay very, very quickly” in cyber preparedness, requiring massive investment just to reach baseline security standards. The supply chain weaponization already underway in current geopolitical tensions provides a preview of wartime challenges. Nations must increasingly choose suppliers and trading partners based on security rather than economic considerations. These pressures will intensify during actual conflict, requiring robust domestic capabilities or reliable allied alternatives. The Mobilization Paradox Perhaps the most sobering insight from the panel discussion concerned mobilization expectations. Traditional planning assumes the ability to “switch on” industrial capacity during crisis, but this assumption proves increasingly problematic. Modern industrial systems require sustained investment, skilled workforces, and complex supply chains that cannot be rapidly created or restored. Prior emphasized that mobilization requires planning in advance rather than crisis response. The “necessity is the mother of invention” approach cannot address complex industrial challenges with uncertain warning times and rapid escalation scenarios. This reality demands fundamental changes in how defence and industry approach preparedness planning. The Swedish example provides valuable perspective on this challenge. Swedish forces were designed to fight for 72 hours to enable mobilization, not to absorb mobilization output. They created space for societal transformation rather than expecting immediate industrial surge. This approach recognizes mobilization as a time-intensive process requiring protection and preparation rather than instant activation. Australia faces particular challenges in this regard due to geographical isolation and limited domestic industrial base. Unlike European nations with nearby allies and established industrial cooperation, Australia must plan for potentially extended periods of relative self-reliance. This reality demands greater emphasis on domestic capabilities and stockpiling rather than relying on just-in-time global supply chains. Toward Genuine Resilience The panel discussion pointed toward several principles for building genuine resilience across Australia’s defence-industrial base. First, honest assessment of current capabilities and limitations must replace optimistic assumptions about crisis responsiveness. This requires uncomfortable conversations about actual versus theoretical capacity. Second, expectation alignment between defence and industry needs systematic attention. Regular dialogue must replace episodic engagement, with industry proactively developing scenario assessments rather than waiting for defence direction. Prior suggested that industry should begin answering questions “that we know defence won’t ask us, or otherwise can’t ask us” about realistic support requirements during extended operations. Third, whole-of-nation planning must extend beyond traditional defence industry to encompass civilian sectors critical during sustained operations. This requires educating non-defence industries about potential wartime requirements and developing frameworks for rapid transition from civilian to defence production. Fourth, workforce development needs strategic attention, including addressing the reservist dilemma, retention during crisis scenarios, and knowledge transfer from experienced personnel to newer workers. The current experience gap threatens operational continuity during normal times and could prove catastrophic during crisis mobilization. Fifth, long-term commitment and political sustainability require broader societal understanding of defence requirements. The Swedish model demonstrated how conscription created societal buy-in for defence investments, but Australia must find alternative approaches to maintain public support for sustained defence preparedness. The Path Forward The panel’s insights point toward a comprehensive approach to building defence resilience that acknowledges the complexity of modern conflict while addressing Australia’s unique circumstances. This approach must balance immediate readiness with sustained capability, tactical effectiveness with strategic endurance, and military requirements with civilian resilience. Success requires moving beyond the “fight tonight” mentality toward “stay in the fight” planning that considers the full spectrum of national resources required for extended operations. This shift demands uncomfortable conversations about current limitations, realistic assessments of mobilization timelines, and honest evaluation of societal commitment to sustained defence efforts. The Swedish experience demonstrates that small nations can develop impressive defence capabilities through clarity of purpose, sustained commitment, and systematic approach to unique challenges. However, their success required decades of consistent effort and societal agreement about defence priorities. Australia must find its own path, suited to democratic governance, geographical isolation, and contemporary threat environments. The alternative, continuing with current assumptions about crisis responsiveness and industrial surge capacity, risks repeating historical patterns where tactical success gives way to strategic failure due to inadequate preparation for sustained operations. Mrs. Chapman’s 1949 accusation about sending soldiers “poorly equipped, directed and eventually abandoned” serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of inadequate preparation. Building genuine resilience requires acknowledging these uncomfortable truths while working systematically to address them. The panel discussion provided valuable insights into these challenges, but implementation demands sustained political will, industry commitment, and societal understanding of the stakes involved. The question remains whether Australia can learn from history and allied examples to build the resilience required for an uncertain strategic future, or whether it will discover these lessons through the harsh teacher of inadequate preparation during actual conflict. The choice between preparation and improvisation remains stark, and the consequences of choosing poorly could prove as tragic as those Mrs. Chapman witnessed in 1949. The panel’s insights provide a roadmap for building genuine resilience, but only sustained commitment across government, industry, and society can transform these insights into the capabilities Australia needs for an uncertain future. Featured image: The resilience panel from left to right: Chris McInnes, Colonel Beaumont, Mike Prior and Group Captain Travis Hallen. Also published in Defense.info

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Conference Paper #9 By Dr Robbin Laird In an era of shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving security challenges, traditional approaches to defence logistics and industrial cooperation are proving fundamentally inadequate. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has starkly illustrated that modern warfare demands not just superior firepower, but the ability to sustain, adapt, and surge capabilities at unprecedented speed and scale. For allied nations like Australia, this reality necessitates a complete reimagining of how defence logistics operates moving from national silos toward truly integrated, multinational systems. The traditional model of defence procurement and logistics, characterized by lengthy acquisition cycles, geographically dispersed supply chains, and rigid national boundaries, is increasingly unsuited to the realities of contemporary conflict. Recent military operations have demonstrated that success depends not merely on having the right equipment, but on maintaining the flexibility to rapidly reconfigure logistics networks, repurpose existing capabilities, and sustain operations across vast distances with uncertain supply lines. This challenge is particularly acute for Australia, given its geographic position, alliance relationships, and growing role in regional security architecture. Rather than static stockpiling and linear supply chains, contemporary military operations require dynamic, adaptive systems that can rapidly pivot between different operational requirements while maintaining efficiency and security. This represents a fundamental shift from thinking about military logistics as a discrete, defence-specific function toward what might be termed “national logistics” or integrated systems that seamlessly leverage civilian infrastructure, commercial industrial capacity, and alliance relationships to create resilient, adaptive capabilities that serve both military and civilian needs. The implications extend far beyond traditional military planning. Modern defence logistics must encompass civilian transportation networks, commercial manufacturing facilities, dual-use technologies, and broad economic relationships that transcend conventional military-industrial boundaries. The artificial distinction between “defence industry” and broader economic activity becomes not just counterproductive but strategically dangerous in an environment where adaptability and surge capacity may determine operational success. We started by discussing the case of the deployment of U.S. Osprey aircraft to Australia’s Northern Territory as an example of a forcing function to work on a broader logistics enterprise. As Beaumont notes, this initiative forces both militaries to confront fundamental questions about sustainability, parts management, and logistics integration that go far beyond traditional host-nation support agreements. Australian personnel must develop expertise in maintaining complex systems, establishing supply chains for specialized parts, and creating secure storage and distribution networks. More importantly, it requires both nations to think systematically about how American and Australian logistics capabilities can be integrated rather than simply coordinated. The implications extend well beyond the immediate operational requirements. Success in sustaining these aircraft operations will require developing what Beaumont calls “mutual benefits” or shared logistics capabilities that serve both nations’ interests while creating efficiencies that neither could achieve independently. This could include joint maintenance facilities, shared training programs, and integrated supply chains that reduce costs while improving operational flexibility. Critically, this arrangement also serves as a forcing function for broader strategic thinking. It compels both militaries to consider how they will manage “global enterprise level activities as a coalition” without creating the kind of friction that has historically plagued multinational operations when resources are scarce and access is limited The path forward requires what Beaumont describes as “enterprise-level” thinking about defence logistics. Instead of treating logistics as a series of discrete joint, national or coalition responsibilities with occasional coordination, this approach envisions truly integrated networks where allies share not just information, but actual logistics infrastructure, industrial capacity, and operational responsibilities. This enterprise mindset represents a paradigm shift comparable to the transformation of global commercial supply chains over the past several decades. Just as modern corporations have learned to optimize efficiency and resilience through integrated global networks, allied militaries must develop similar capabilities but with the added complexity of maintaining security, sovereignty, and operational effectiveness across different national systems. The enterprise approach becomes particularly crucial as force posture arrangements scale up to place considerable demands on Australia’s industrial base. Rather than viewing increased military cooperation as a burden on existing capabilities, the enterprise framework suggests ways that expanded cooperation can actually enhance national industrial capacity while serving collective security interests. This integration requires moving beyond traditional coordination mechanisms toward genuine resource sharing and joint investment in capabilities that serve multiple national interests simultaneously. It means developing institutional arrangements that can manage “global enterprise level activities as a coalition” without creating the friction and resource competition that has historically plagued multinational operations. The concept of embedded logistics offers a concrete framework for implementing enterprise-level thinking in practice. This model envisions multiple allied nations collectively investing in shared industrial capacity within strategically positioned locations, using existing commercial relationships as foundations for expanded defence cooperation. Australia’s current industrial relationships provide an ideal starting point for this approach. South Korea’s existing vehicle manufacturing operations in Australia, for example, could serve as the foundation for expanded production capabilities that serve multiple allied requirements. By having the United States, Japan, and South Korea jointly invest in Australian production facilities for common weapons systems and ammunition, allied nations could create genuinely shared industrial assets that enhance collective capability while strengthening individual national positions. The embedded logistics approach offers several strategic advantages that extend well beyond simple cost savings. First, it creates geographic diversification of critical manufacturing capabilities, reducing collective vulnerability to disruption while providing Australia with enhanced industrial capacity. Second, it generates operational efficiencies by producing materials closer to where they might be employed, rather than manufacturing in distant locations and shipping across vast ocean distances under potentially contested conditions. Third, and perhaps most importantly, embedded logistics creates shared stakes in the success of these facilities, strengthening alliance bonds through mutual economic interests that transcend traditional diplomatic relationships. When allied nations have joint investments in Australian production capabilities, they develop vested interests in Australia’s security and stability that reinforce formal alliance commitments with economic incentives. The model extends beyond simple production to encompass the entire logistics ecosystem. Manufacturing capability without corresponding distribution networks, supply chain management, and surge capacity planning provides limited strategic value. Embedded logistics therefore requires thinking holistically about how materials move from production through distribution to end users, including the civilian infrastructure and commercial relationships that make this movement possible. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine provides crucial insights for rethinking allied defence logistics. As Beaumont observes, “the real lesson out of Ukraine is one of logistics and industrial adaptability and not necessarily preparedness This observation challenges fundamental assumptions about defence planning that have guided military thinking for decades. Traditional defence planning emphasizes detailed preparation, pre-positioning of specific capabilities, and comprehensive logistical preparation for anticipated scenarios. The Ukrainian experience demonstrates that such preparation, while valuable, may be less important than maintaining the intellectual agility and institutional flexibility to rapidly adapt available resources to meet unexpected requirements. Ukrainian forces have shown remarkable creativity in employing weapons systems in ways never originally intended, finding innovative solutions when ideal capabilities were unavailable, and rapidly scaling production and distribution of critical materials under extreme conditions. They have demonstrated that adaptability—the ability to creatively employ whatever resources are available—may be more valuable than having precisely the right equipment for anticipated scenarios. This lesson has profound implications for allied defence logistics planning. Rather than fixating on delivering specific capabilities through lengthy acquisition programs, allied militaries might achieve better results by developing flexible systems and maintaining the institutional knowledge to employ them in novel ways when circumstances demand adaptation. The embedded logistics concept directly supports this adaptability imperative by creating diverse, geographically distributed production capabilities that can be rapidly reconfigured to meet changing requirements. Instead of depending on single-source suppliers or geographically concentrated production facilities, embedded logistics creates multiple options that can be activated and scaled according to operational needs. Implementing enterprise-level logistics cooperation requires more than new concepts and frameworks. It demands fundamental institutional innovation and cultural change within defence organizations accustomed to national approaches to logistics and procurement. Australia’s creation of the National Support Division within its defence structure represents an important step toward institutional arrangements capable of managing these more complex relationships. Rather than treating industry engagement as a series of transactional procurement decisions, this new institutional framework envisions sustained, strategic partnerships that enable rapid adaptation and surge capacity when needed. However, institutional change alone proves insufficient without corresponding changes in organizational culture and operational practice. Historical examples of similar initiatives that failed to achieve practical outcomes demonstrate that new frameworks must “prove themselves and create results” through concrete achievements rather than remaining conceptual exercises. Success requires defence organizations to develop new capabilities for articulating requirements, not just immediate needs but potential future requirements across a range of scenarios. This includes creating institutionalized mechanisms for expressing demand signals to civilian industries and partner nations in ways that enable proactive capacity development rather than reactive crisis response. The communication challenge extends beyond simple procurement to encompass broader questions of national resilience and crisis response. Rather than waiting for crises to begin negotiations with civilian logistics providers, defence organizations need ongoing relationships that enable rapid mobilization of commercial capabilities when needed. This requires breaking down artificial barriers between military and civilian logistics while maintaining appropriate security and oversight measures. An effective logistics enterprise also requires improved coordination across government departments and agencies that have traditionally operated independently. As Beaumont explains, there are frequent situations where different agencies have complementary needs that could be addressed through coordinated investment approaches. When governments at all levels consider infrastructure investments that might also serve defence logistics requirements, coordinated planning could achieve both objectives more cost-effectively than separate programs. Similarly, when civilian emergency management agencies develop disaster response capabilities, coordinated approaches could create systems that serve both emergency response and military logistics as well as broader civil preparedness requirements. This type of “co-development” arrangement requires breaking down bureaucratic silos while maintaining appropriate oversight and accountability mechanisms. It means developing planning processes that can identify opportunities for shared investment while respecting the different mandates and constraints that govern different government agencies. The economic benefits extend beyond simple cost savings to encompass broader questions of national industrial capacity and economic resilience. Embedded logistics investments can strengthen civilian economic sectors while building defence capabilities, creating jobs and technological expertise that serve both military and commercial purposes. As global security challenges continue to evolve in unpredictable directions, the nations that succeed in creating integrated approaches to defence logistics may find themselves better positioned not just to respond to immediate threats, but to adapt to challenges that have not yet emerged. In an era where adaptability may prove more valuable than preparedness, enterprise logistics approaches that seamlessly integrate civilian industry and decision-makers become essential elements of national security strategy. Additionally, an embedded logistics framework offers a promising path toward allied cooperation that enhances both collective capability and individual national resilience. By moving beyond traditional transactional relationships toward truly integrated logistics enterprises, Australia and its allies can create more resilient, efficient, and adaptable defence capabilities suited to the strategic challenges of the twenty-first century. Also published in Defense.info

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Conference Proceeding s #7 By Dr Robbin Laird In an era of growing strategic uncertainty, Australia faces a fundamental question about its defence posture: how does a geographically isolated continent-nation sustain military operations when global supply chains fail? Air Vice Marshal (Retired) Robert Denney, now Country Executive for Northrop Grumman Australia, delivered a compelling answer in a recent presentation that cuts to the heart of Australia’s defence industrial strategy. Speaking from decades of experience in both military leadership and defence industry, Denney’s message was unambiguous: if Australia wants to be ready to “fight tonight,” it must also be prepared to fight “tomorrow night, next week, and next month.” This capability doesn’t emerge overnight. It requires deliberate, long-term investment in sovereign industrial capacity that begins well before any conflict materializes. The Geography of Defence Manufacturing Australia’s strategic geography presents unique challenges that distinguish it from other nations facing security threats. Unlike Ukraine, which despite being under invasion can receive continuous equipment shipments across land borders, Australia sits as an island continent potentially thousands of kilometres from allied support. This geographic reality fundamentally changes the equation for defence preparedness. “The larger the Australian industrial base, the more capacity to manufacture hardware essential for ongoing warfare, week after week, month after month,” Denney emphasized. But the value extends beyond just manufacturing capacity. It encompasses the skills, knowledge, and experience that underwrite innovation under pressure. This industrial base functions as more than just a manufacturing capability; it serves as an arm of national deterrence. The potential of what Australia can become when mobilized may prove as deterrent as its current military posture. Adversaries must calculate not just against Australia’s existing defence capabilities, but against its capacity to rapidly scale production and adapt to changing conflict dynamics. The Historical Efficiency Trap For decades, Australia’s defence procurement has followed a predictable pattern: prioritize efficiency and value for money, rely on market forces to shape outcomes, and expect industry to deliver capability improvements at the lowest possible cost. This approach, while financially prudent in peacetime, has led to a systematic atrophy of Australian defence manufacturing capacity. The logic seemed sound: why maintain expensive domestic production when global markets could deliver the same capability more cheaply? The answer, as recent global events have demonstrated, lies in the fragility of extended supply chains during crisis and the time required to build industrial capability from scratch. “If we want disrupted results, we need a different approach,” Denney argued. The traditional efficiency-focused model assumes peacetime conditions will persist indefinitely. It fails to account for the reality that future conflicts may require sustained industrial output over months or years, potentially without access to traditional supply sources. The Supply Chain Lock-In Effect Understanding how defence supply chains actually develop reveals why Australia has struggled to build sovereign capability. The process is neither simple nor quick. It’s a deliberate, resource-intensive endeavor that unfolds over years. Defence contractors invest heavily in identifying, qualifying, and nurturing suppliers. These suppliers become integral to platform success, with teams matching component needs to supplier capabilities, negotiating contracts, managing production timelines, and adhering to stringent quality standards. The process typically begins during initial production phases, where suppliers climb learning curves, reduce costs, and improve efficiency. By the time a product reaches full production maturity, successful suppliers have developed considerable competitive advantages. They possess the specialized tooling, skilled workforce, and intellectual property necessary to deliver reliably at competitive costs. More importantly, they have established relationships and proven track records that make replacing them both difficult and often unjustifiable. This creates what Denney calls the “lock-in effect.” Once supply chains mature and become entrenched, expecting companies to drop performing suppliers for Australian alternatives becomes unrealistic. After all, if Australia could arbitrarily replace established suppliers, what prevents the same logic from being applied to Australian companies in future competitions? Success Stories: Early Engagement Pays Dividends Despite these challenges, Australian companies have successfully penetrated global defence supply chains, but their success stories share a common thread: early engagement before supply chains crystallize. Consider AW Bell, a Melbourne-based foundry that became a qualified supplier for multiple prime contractors. Their opportunity arose when established suppliers struggled with delivery timelines and quality control. By stepping in when others failed, AW Bell not only secured contracts with Northrop Grumman but expanded to supply Lockheed Martin and other major defence contractors, earning excellence awards in the process. However, relying on other suppliers’ failures represents an unsustainable strategy for building sovereign capability. More instructive are examples where Australian companies gained access through strategic early investment. AME Systems, an Australian cable manufacturer, succeeded because Australia was a co-development partner in the Triton program. This early investment opened doors for AME to enter the supply chain before it became locked in. Today, AME supplies cables to the entire U.S. and Australian Triton fleet, a contract that would be nearly impossible to secure if attempted after the supply base had been established. Similarly, Cable X secured work on the Wedgetail airborne early warning and control system because Australia invested early in the program, again before the supply base crystallized. Cable X has been supplying the program for over 20 years, demonstrating the longevity of these early-entry advantages. The GWEO Model: Signalling Intent The most promising example of how government can facilitate Australian industry inclusion comes from the approach being used for the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) manufacturing centre. Here, the government has signalled its intention to invest upfront in manufacturing before production has even begun, allowing industry to lock in suppliers from the outset. This approach demonstrates the power of early government commitment. As Denney noted, if Northrop Grumman wins the GWEO solid rocket motor contract, their aspirational goal would be 100% Australian supply chain content. While achieving 100% may prove unrealistic, starting with that ambition fundamentally changes the supplier search process. “We don’t know if we’ll achieve 100%, but that’s how we would try to approach it,” Denney explained. This mindset shift, from trying to retrofit Australian suppliers into established supply chains to building supply chains around Australian capability, represents a fundamental strategic reorientation. Mobilization as Capability, Not Switch Perhaps the most crucial insight from Denney’s presentation concerns the nature of industrial mobilization. Too often, policymakers conceive of mobilization as a switch that can be flipped when conflict begins. This fundamental misunderstanding has led to procurement strategies that prioritize peacetime efficiency over wartime resilience. “Mobilization is not a switch you can flip when conflict begins. It’s a capability you build in advance,” Denney emphasized. When local companies participate in supply chains from day one, they gain the experience, tooling, and workforce necessary to deliver at scale. More importantly, they develop the agility to pivot, adapt production, innovate under pressure, and respond to emerging threats during wartime. This agility represents the essence of sovereign capability. It enables rapid adaptation when conflict dynamics shift unexpectedly and ensures Australia functions as a producer of defence capability, not merely a consumer. The ability to “respond, recover and reinforce at speed” becomes the difference between sustained operations and strategic dependence. Redefining Success Metrics Traditional defence procurement measures success through equipment delivery and cost efficiency. Under mounting strategic pressure, these metrics prove insufficient for building the industrial base necessary for sustained conflict. Denney advocates for expanded success criteria that capture the broader strategic value of defence investments. Future acquisitions should be measured on: Workforce Development: The Australian skills, knowledge, and training generated through industrial participation. Infrastructure Investment: Both private and public investment in plant and tooling capabilities. Intellectual Property Creation: The knowledge and manufacturing expertise that remains in Australia. Supply Base Development: The network of qualified suppliers that can support sustained production. This broader measurement framework recognizes that defence acquisitions deliver value beyond the immediate platform or capability. They represent investments in national resilience and strategic autonomy. Strategic Industrial Development The implications of this analysis point toward a more deliberate industrial development strategy. Rather than hoping Australian companies will organically find opportunities in defence supply chains, government should actively seed industrial capabilities in strategically important areas. This might mean funding specific industrial capabilities regardless of their connection to existing platform acquisitions. Just as Australia comfortably invests in war stocks with little peacetime utility, it should invest in industrial capacity purely to have it mature to a level where it can be activated during conflict. “We seem quite comfortable investing in major systems, workforce facilities that do not have substantial peacetime roles,” Denney observed. “We hold significant investments in explosive ordnance war stock that has little utility in peacetime.” If Australia can justify these investments, the logic extends naturally to industrial capability that can transform finite war stocks into potentially unlimited production capacity. The Iceberg Analogy Denney’s most powerful metaphor describes this latent industrial capability as the “submerged part of the iceberg” or the hidden portion that provides stability and resilience to the visible military capability above water. This submerged capacity represents the skills, experience, and industrial base that allow Australian industry to adapt, innovate, and respond to the unpredictable nature of future conflict. By investing early in this submerged capability, Australia builds what might be called “strategic industrial depth.” This represents more than just manufacturing capacity: it encompasses the human capital, technological knowledge, and industrial relationships necessary to sustain complex military operations over extended periods. This strategic approach carries inherent risks. Defence investments in industrial capability might not translate into actual capability acquisitions. Some investments may prove unsuccessful or redundant. However, as Denney noted, “with risk comes reward.” The alternative which would be attempting to build industrial capability after conflict begins carries far greater risks and lower probability of success. The strategic calculus becomes clear: invest in potential industrial capacity that may never be needed, or face the certainty of industrial inadequacy when it is most required. For a nation with Australia’s geographic constraints and strategic exposure, this represents a straightforward choice. Conclusion: Building Today for Tomorrow’s Conflicts Air Vice Marshal Denney’s presentation provides a roadmap for transforming Australia from a defence consumer into a defence producer. The path requires abandoning comfortable assumptions about efficiency-driven procurement and embracing the uncertainty inherent in building sovereign industrial capability. The core insight remains compelling: Australia cannot achieve genuine defence self-reliance without the industrial base to sustain military operations over time. Building this capability requires early investment, strategic patience, and acceptance that some investments may not yield immediate returns. Most importantly, it requires recognition that in an era of strategic competition, industrial capacity itself functions as a form of deterrence. The ability to rapidly scale defence production and adapt to changing conflict requirements may prove as strategically valuable as any individual weapon system. As global supply chains face increasing fragility and strategic competition intensifies, Australia’s choice becomes stark: invest now in sovereign industrial capability or accept strategic dependence when it matters most. The time for building tomorrow’s defence industrial base is today. Also published in Defense.info

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Conference Proceeding s #6 By Dr Robbin Laird Air Commodore Alun Roberts, Head Air to Air Missiles Royal Air Force, outlined in a virtual presentation to the seminar, Britain’s ambitious defence transformation in response to evolving global security challenges. The United Kingdom’s recently published Strategic Defence Review (SDR) 2025 represents nothing sa paradigm shift in British defence thinking. He argued that is one driven by the harsh realities of contemporary warfare and an increasingly dangerous global security environment. The Strategic Imperative: A World Transformed The SDR’s genesis lies in what Roberts described as the definitive shattering of “optimistic notions” about global stability. The illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 served as a brutal awakening, demonstrating that the post-Cold War era of relative peace was over. The review explicitly identifies Russia as the primary threat, noting that Moscow’s aggression has become “more sophisticated and more basic” across all operational domains—land, sea, air, space, and crucially, cyberspace. This threat assessment has driven what Roberts characterised as a “NATO-first approach,” representing a fundamental recalibration of British strategic priorities. However, this European focus should not be misunderstood as isolationist. As Roberts emphasised, “a strong, secure Europe creates greater stability, freeing up capacity and capabilities to contribute to global security challenges.” This philosophy underpins the UK’s continued commitment to global partnerships, particularly with Indo-Pacific allies like Australia. The strategic review acknowledges that modern security challenges extend far beyond traditional military capabilities. Today’s threats encompass cyber warfare, hybrid operations, economic coercion, and what military analysts term “grey zone” activities—those actions that fall below the threshold of conventional warfare but nonetheless pose serious security risks. The recent incidents along Russia’s eastern borders serve as stark reminders of how quickly situations can escalate in this new strategic environment. Historic Defence Investment: Backing Words with Resources The government has announced plans to increase defence expenditure from the current 2.3% of GDP to an ambitious 2.5% by 2035, a trajectory that Roberts described as “clear and irreversible.” More significantly, the UK anticipates core defence spending rising toward 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% allocated for broader national security investments encompassing cyber defence, counter-terrorism, and critical infrastructure protection. This represents one of the largest defence spending increases in NATO since the end of the Cold War. To put this in perspective, reaching 2.5% of GDP would place the UK among the highest defence spenders in the alliance, demonstrating genuine commitment to burden-sharing that goes far beyond political rhetoric. The sustained nature of this investment signals to allies and adversaries alike that Britain is serious about its security responsibilities. The investment serves multiple strategic objectives beyond simple capability enhancement. It will modernise the Armed Forces with cutting-edge equipment and technology, strengthen the UK’s defence industrial base, and create thousands of high-skilled jobs across the country. As Roberts noted, a robust defence industry is “not just an economic asset for it’s a strategic imperative.” This investment will drive innovation, ensure domestic capacity for equipment production and maintenance, and reduce dependence on potentially unreliable foreign suppliers. Industrial Renaissance: Lessons from Ukraine The conflict in Ukraine has provided sobering lessons about the importance of industrial capacity in modern warfare. Even highly advanced military forces can rapidly deplete their stockpiles during high-intensity operations, making sustained production capabilities absolutely critical. This realisation has prompted a significant expansion of the UK’s domestic munitions production capacity. The SDR announces the establishment of six new munitions factories across the United Kingdom, representing substantial investment in national security infrastructure. These facilities will focus on producing diverse ranges of critical munitions including artillery shells vital for ground operations, anti-tank missiles, and sophisticated air-to-air missiles. The strategic importance of this investment cannot be overstated. It ensures the UK can maintain prolonged operations while contributing to collective defence efforts across NATO. This industrial expansion serves dual purposes: enhancing national security while boosting economic prosperity. The new factories will create thousands of high-skilled manufacturing jobs, supporting local economies and fostering engineering expertise that has strategic value beyond defence applications. Moreover, it positions the UK as a reliable supplier for allied nations, strengthening diplomatic relationships through practical defence cooperation. Royal Air Force Transformation: Next-Generation Air Power The SDR outlines an ambitious transformation of Royal Air Force capabilities, built on what Roberts termed “several interconnected, mutually reinforcing key pillars.” This represents the most comprehensive modernisation of British air power since the jet age, designed to ensure the RAF remains among the world’s most capable and technologically advanced air forces. At the heart of this transformation lies the F-35 Lightning programme. The government has confirmed a crucial enhancement to the UK’s F-35 procurement strategy, deciding to acquire the conventional F-35A variant alongside the existing F-35B short takeoff and vertical landing fleet. This mixed approach offers significant strategic advantages: the F-35A provides greater range and payload capacity while serving as a key component of NATO’s dual-capable aircraft nuclear mission, underscoring Britain’s deep integration into alliance nuclear burden-sharing arrangements. The decision reflects sophisticated strategic thinking about air power requirements. While F-35B aircraft will continue their vital role operating from the Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers and expeditionary bases, F-35A aircraft will enhance land-based combat capabilities and provide improved training opportunities. Crucially, this approach offers greater interoperability with the majority of NATO allies who operate the F-35A variant. Existing Typhoon aircraft will undergo rigorous upgrades to ensure their continued relevance well into the next decade. The most significant enhancement involves integrating the Enhanced Electronic Warfare (EW) system known as ECRS Mark 2, transforming the Typhoon into a formidable electronic attack platform alongside its traditional air-to-air and air-to-ground roles. This capability is increasingly vital in modern warfare, where electronic dominance often determines battle outcomes. Future Combat Systems: GCAP and Beyond The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), also known by various names including Future Combat Air System and Tempest, represents one of the most ambitious international defence collaborations in decades. This groundbreaking effort between close partners aims to develop next-generation fighter aircraft designed specifically for highly contested environments expected in future conflicts. GCAP aircraft will embody cutting-edge stealth technology, advanced sensors, and unprecedented connectivity, providing decisive technological advantages against peer adversaries. The programme represents the future of air power projection and deterrence, designed to complement and eventually replace both the F-35 and Typhoon fleets. While ambitious and complex, GCAP demonstrates how international cooperation can achieve capabilities that would be prohibitively expensive for individual nations. Supporting this next-generation platform, the UK is developing advanced standoff weapons including the SPEAR 3 missile and Future Cruise Anti-Ship Weapon (FCASW). The SDR also introduces Britain’s ambition for next-generation air-to-air capabilities through the Future Air Superiority Effects (FASE) programme. FASE will develop advanced air-to-air missiles ensuring British combat aircraft maintain decisive advantages in aerial engagements, covering everything from sophisticated high-threat targets to the high-volume, low-cost threats demonstrated by Russian forces. Autonomous Revolution: Embracing Uncrewed Systems Perhaps no aspect of the SDR is more forward-looking than its embrace of autonomous and uncrewed systems. The conflict in Ukraine has vividly demonstrated the transformative power of drones, artificial intelligence, and autonomous systems in modern warfare. The Royal Air Force is committed to what Roberts called an “autonomous revolution” with ambitious plans for autonomous combat aircraft complementing crewed platforms. The strategic vision involves creating a “high-low capability mix” where uncrewed systems comprise a substantial proportion of air platforms. This approach offers increased agility, enhanced resilience, and critically, the ability to operate in contested environments with reduced risk to human life. It addresses the “mass problem” that has concerned military planners for decades, freeing up expensive crewed platforms for the most demanding and complex missions. To accelerate this transformation, the UK is investing significantly in establishing a new Defence Uncrewed Systems Centre by 2026. This facility will focus on the rapid adoption and seamless integration of autonomous technologies across all services, ensuring Britain remains at the forefront of military innovation. Air and Missile Defence: Addressing Capability Gaps After decades of what Roberts frankly acknowledged as poor policy decisions leading to disinvestment in air defence, the UK is making a decisive reversal. The SDR allocates £1 billion specifically for homeland air and missile defence—a critical investment given increasingly sophisticated aerial threats ranging from ballistic missiles and hypersonic vehicles to the proliferation of low-cost, high-volume drone threats evident along Europe’s eastern borders. This investment will create a layered, adaptive defence system capable of responding to the full spectrum of aerial threats. The urgency of this requirement has been highlighted by recent events, demonstrating how quickly air defence can become a matter of national survival rather than merely military capability. Ukraine: The Defining Conflict Central to the SDR’s strategic framework is unwavering support for Ukraine. Roberts was unequivocal in describing the conflict not as a regional dispute but as “a profound battle for the fundamental principles of sovereignty, self-determination, and the very future of the international rules-based order.” This perspective drives much of the review’s analysis and recommendations. Britain has already committed billions in military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, with these commitments set to increase in line with rising defence spending. The UK is actively contributing to international initiatives leveraging seized Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s recovery, ensuring Russia pays for the damage it has inflicted. More fundamentally, the lessons from Ukraine are directly shaping British defence thinking, highlighting the importance of adaptable innovation, robust industrial bases, and whole-of-society approaches to national security. Global Implications and Allied Cooperation While the SDR emphasises European security, Roberts was careful to reinforce that this focus complements rather than detracts from broader international partnerships. The UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt remains intact, with the recognition that global challenges—from state aggression to cyber threats—require coordinated international responses. The review strengthens collective resolve by demonstrating that shared values and common threats can drive effective cooperation on a global scale. For allies like Australia, a stronger, more secure Europe provides stability that enables greater focus on other regions and challenges. Conclusion: Strength Through Unity The UK’s Strategic Defence Review 2025 represents a comprehensive response to an increasingly dangerous world. It demonstrates how nations can adapt to evolving threats while maintaining core principles and international partnerships. Through unprecedented investment, industrial expansion, technological innovation, and unwavering support for allies under attack, Britain is positioning itself not just to deter aggression but to help shape a more secure global future. As Air Commodore Roberts concluded, this transformation stems not from any desire for conflict but from a profound understanding that strength, unity, and unwavering support for those under attack represent the most effective means of deterring aggression and safeguarding shared values. In an era where the international rules-based order faces its greatest challenge since 1945, the UK’s response offers a model for how democracies can adapt, modernise, and prevail against authoritarian threats. Featured image: Air Commodore Alun Roberts, Head Air to Air Missiles Royal Air Force, as seen on the video hookup with the seminar. Also published in Defense.info

Fight Tonight: Combat Readiness at the Speed of Relevance - Conference Proceeding s #5 By Dr Robbin Laird In an era of unprecedented global uncertainty, Australia faces a critical question: Can the nation mobilize its industrial base quickly enough to meet emerging security challenges? According to Matt Jones (seen above in the featured photo), Head of Future Business Defence Delivery at BAE Systems Australia, the answer lies not in waiting for crisis to justify action, but in learning from history’s most successful and failed attempts at defence industrial mobilization. Speaking at the Sir Richard Williams Foundation symposium on combat readiness at the “speed of relevance,” Jones delivered a compelling case for immediate action, drawing on lessons from World War II industrialists and Ukraine’s recent transformation to argue that Australia’s defence industrial mobilization cannot wait for bullets to fly. The Urgency of Now Australia finds itself navigating what Jones describes as “the most uncertain and unsettling period of our lifetimes.” Strategic pressures are multiplying from Europe and the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, where China remains a persistent threat. The required pace of capability development is accelerating while operational risks increase exponentially. In this context, Jones argues, Australian industry must evolve beyond its traditional role as a transactional supplier to become “an enabler of national combat power.” This transformation requires what he calls both urgency and historical perspective which requires understanding not just what needs to be done, but learning from those who have faced similar challenges before. The fundamental lesson Jones extracts from history is stark: “Waiting for crisis to justify investment leaves us with money, but no time.” This principle underpins his entire argument for proactive industrial mobilization, supported by three compelling historical examples that offer both inspiration and warning. Bill Knudsen: The Power of Unified Purpose The first lesson comes from America’s “Arsenal of Democracy” during World War II, orchestrated by Bill Knudsen, the General Motors president thrust into wartime industrial leadership by President Roosevelt in 1940. Knudsen’s approach offers a masterclass in rapid industrial mobilization under pressure. Leading the hastily formed National Defence Advisory Commission, Knudsen harnessed America’s industrial giants —General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler — leveraging their management capabilities, workforce, and production expertise to scale military capability at unprecedented speed. His genius lay in understanding that winning wars required more than battlefield strategy; it demanded mobilizing industry at extraordinary pace. Knudsen’s key innovations were revolutionary in their simplicity. He forged early partnerships between government and industry, creating coordinated efforts that prepared production lines before war arrived. Most importantly, he prioritized mass production and standardization over perfection. His philosophy that “100 good enough aircraft today would save more lives than one perfect aircraft next year” transformed how America approached wartime production. The results speak volumes: America’s mobilized industrial base produced 70% of all Allied military equipment. Knudsen had correctly identified war as fundamentally “a production problem” and solved it through industrial might rather than seeking perfect solutions. Essington Lewis: The Cost of Delayed Action Australia’s own wartime industrial experience offers a more sobering lesson through Essington Lewis, BHP’s managing director who became Director-General of the Department of Munitions and later Aircraft Production. Lewis faced a reality starkly different from Knudsen’s—attempting to mobilize Australia’s industrial base before conflict began, only to be frustrated by governmental inaction. From 1935 onwards, Lewis lobbied increasingly urgently for Australia to prepare for war mobilization. His foresight proved accurate, but his warnings fell on deaf ears in Canberra. When conflict finally arrived, Australia was underprepared despite having adequate funds. The nation lacked the industrial experience needed to build both capability and culture under wartime pressure. Lewis’s experience crystallizes a fundamental truth: “foresight without action is useless.” His later reflection that “money cannot buy lost time” serves as a warning for contemporary Australia. Despite accomplishing remarkable feats such as expanding steel production, building aircraft and munitions plants, innovating under financial constraints, his efforts were continually slowed by bureaucracy and underfunding. The comparison between Knudsen and Lewis is instructive. Knudsen had government backing and urgency; Lewis had vision and capability constrained by bureaucracy. Lewis’s experience demonstrates that industrial mobilization in constrained environments requires exceptional leadership, innovation, and the ability to navigate political obstacles while working “with what you have, not what you wish you had.” Ukraine: Modern Lessons in Adaptive Mobilization Perhaps the most relevant contemporary example comes from Ukraine’s transformation following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Rather than assuming NATO would provide adequate deterrence, Ukraine began modernizing its defence industry and detaching itself from Soviet industrial legacy. Ukraine’s state-owned Ukroboronprom transformed from a corrupt, inefficient Soviet-era concern into a transparent, investor-friendly entity capable of leading large defence projects and full-scale production. Hundreds of small and medium enterprises entered the market, many focused on drones, advanced electronics, and AI-enabled capabilities. Crucially, Ukraine shifted away from Russian supply chain dependence, pursuing joint ventures with countries like Turkey and Poland. The transformation wasn’t perfect, inefficiencies, corruption, and gaps remained. However, Ukraine’s crucial advantage was starting mobilization eight years before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. This head start proved enormously valuable when conflict erupted. By 2022, Ukraine possessed engineers and innovators capable of adapting commercial drones into formidable battlefield weapons. The nation had built capacity to sustain artillery fire and manufacture unmanned systems even as Western ammunition supplies fluctuated. Partnerships with Poland and Turkey yielded battlefield-leading systems like the Bayraktar TB2 drone. Most importantly, Ukraine had cultivated “a culture of innovating at wartime speed.” Civilian scientists and small businesses weren’t standing on sidelines but they were integral to the fight. When battlefield problems emerged, solutions were prototyped in days and fielded in weeks, not decades. Australia’s Current Reality These historical lessons frame Australia’s contemporary challenges starkly. The nation’s geography, alliance relationships, and regional change pace mean that if crisis comes, it may arrive fast. Industrial mobilization cannot wait for emergency justification. Australia currently operates what Jones terms “a two-speed economy,” requiring simultaneous investment in immediate readiness and expensive future force structure pillars. This dual demand strains defence budgets significantly, even with projected increases over coming years. The hard truth is that peacetime publics rarely demand higher defence spending. Every dollar faces scrutiny while bureaucracy and oversight, though protecting accountability, slow innovation and mobilization. Markets reward efficiency and shareholder returns, not readiness thereby creating fundamental tension with defence requirements. Australia’s current industrial base, while modernizing, remains underweight, fragmented, and reliant on extended global supply chains. The Defence Strategic Review acknowledges this poses significant risk. If conflict disrupts supply lines, substantial gaps exist in specialized electronics for guided munitions, advanced materials for aerospace and high-speed weapons, and essential machining capabilities for military-grade production at scale. Additional challenges include duplication of effort across multiple organizations conducting similar work, consuming precious resources unnecessarily. Competition often stifles effective outcomes, forcing small and medium enterprises to operate under fragmented demand signals and compliance pressures threatening their long-term viability. Budget pressures risk undermining capabilities built carefully over decades. Once capability is lost, regaining it becomes extraordinarily difficult and time-consuming. This reality demands closer government-industry collaboration, sharing affordability challenges and jointly developing solutions. Building on Strengths Despite these challenges, Jones maintains optimism based on Australia’s demonstrated capabilities. The nation has repeatedly proven that when incentivized, it can advance and build sophisticated technologies quickly. The Counter-IED Task Force supporting operations in Iraq and Afghanistan exemplifies this potential, where Defence, DSTO, industry, and academia collaborated to deliver leading-edge capability into the field, saving soldiers’ lives. This success model demonstrates Australia’s capacity for rapid innovation when organizational barriers are removed. Australia’s industrial base already possesses hundreds of innovative SMEs designing and building weapons and drones, many operational in Ukraine and exported globally. The nation maintains robust munitions capabilities at facilities like Mulwala and Benalla, producing high-quality ordnance reliably at scale. Advanced aircraft sector achievements include projects like the Ghost Bat, showcasing Australian ability to produce high-end aviation systems. Next-generation shipbuilding at 21st-century facilities like Osborne make traditional shipbuilders envious globally. World-leading advanced capabilities exist in hypersonics, over-the-horizon radar, electronic warfare technologies, and underwater sensing and autonomous systems. Underlying all achievements is Australian engineering quality, renowned globally for achieving remarkable solutions efficiently. These strengths provide solid foundations for accelerated growth if properly coordinated and resourced. The Path Forward Drawing from historical successes and failures, Jones proposes specific actions for strengthening Australia’s industrial base rapidly. These recommendations synthesize lessons from Knudsen’s coordination success, Lewis’s bureaucratic struggles, and Ukraine’s adaptive transformation. First, Australia needs a government-led industry steering council with real authority and incentives, similar to what Lewis advocated. This council, ideally led by experienced industrialists, would transcend contract-by-contract decision-making to orchestrate whole-of-nation industrial effort. It would integrate SMEs, advanced manufacturers, software companies, and non-traditional sectors, following models demonstrated by Australia and the U.S. decades ago and Ukraine more recently. • Second, dedicated funding must be carved from the 2026 Integrated Operations Plan to strengthen industrial base capabilities. Following UK experience, budget portions should be allocated top-down, guided by the steering council toward areas of greatest strategic need. This approach mirrors Lewis’s wartime aircraft focus and Ukraine’s drone emphasis. Third, Australia must select and develop capabilities suitable for large-scale manufacturing. This requires identifying what Jones calls “the skipping missile”—capabilities that can be produced efficiently at scale while providing genuine military advantage. Fourth, a strong export strategy is essential for sustaining sovereign capabilities during peacetime. Exports keep production lines running, skills sharp, and innovation alive. They’re not merely about GDP enhancement or export rankings—they sustain sovereign capabilities ready to pivot when domestic requirements arise. The Australian Defence Strategic Sales Office provides a good foundation, but every government official should advocate for Australian industry to secure deals strengthening capability base. Fifth, policy settings must adjust to enable rapid peacetime mobilization. While public money deserves scrutiny, rigid policies can stifle urgent capability decisions. Sole source selections are often justified, yet current policies can prevent them. Rather than viewing audit bodies as barriers, their compliance role should inform policy improvements serving mission requirements. Finally, companies must develop contingency plans for crisis response. This requires streamlined internal governance, minimized bureaucratic hurdles, and maintained agility for when demand signals arrive. Strategic preparation includes stress-testing delivery pipelines, planning manufacturing ramp-ups, and validating alternate Australian suppliers. Effective communication and leadership must align internal and external stakeholders, ensuring readiness to operate under emergency protocols while prioritizing mission-critical outputs over business-as-usual tasks. The Mobilization Culture Perhaps most importantly, Australia must cultivate what Jones calls “a mobilization culture”, one that dials up risk appetites while clearly defining risk ownership in every situation. This culture enables deployment of minimum viable capabilities rather than waiting for perfect solutions that arrive too late. This cultural transformation requires leadership at every level, government officials who understand industrial mobilization urgency, company executives who prepare for rapid scaling, and engineers who prioritize speed and effectiveness over bureaucratic compliance. It demands recognition that in crisis, good enough today beats perfect tomorrow. The Ukrainian example demonstrates this culture’s power. When battlefield problems emerged, solutions appeared within days because the entire system was oriented toward rapid response rather than perfect processes. Australia needs similar agility built into its peacetime industrial preparation. A Decisive Moment Australia stands at what Jones characterizes as “a decisive moment.” The nation possesses ingenuity, talent, and industrial foundations necessary to deliver sovereign capability when required. What’s needed now is urgency, coordination, and leadership to align industry and defence in a truly national endeavor. The lessons from Knudsen, Lewis, and Ukraine’s transformation are clear: early action, wise investment, and clear organizational purpose determine success when crisis arrives. Australia cannot afford to repeat Lewis’s frustration with governmental inaction or assume that crisis will provide sufficient justification for mobilization. If Australia acts early, invests wisely, and organizes itself with clarity and purpose, when the call comes, the nation will be ready to fight tonight, not just in rhetoric, but in reality. The choice is stark: begin serious industrial mobilization now during relative peace, or face the consequences of unpreparedness when strategic patience runs out. History’s lessons are unambiguous. The question now is whether Australia will heed them before it’s too late. Also published in Defense.info Also, see the following: Re-Thinking Australia’s National Security Strategy – Lessons from the 1930s for the 2030s The Australian Defence Strategic Review: Lessons from the Past